Assessing Arsenal’s Top Four Hopes – Rival Analysis

It’s fair to say this season hasn’t started as we expected.

We’re about a quarter through the 2020/21 campaign, and the table looks… really weird. Two of the ‘big six’ are in the top four places, two, including Arsenal, are below tenth, Man City are tenth, last year’s relegation scrappers all occupy the upper echelons of the table, the list goes on.

This season has seen records broken (already), an increased prevalence of VAR controversy, greater success playing away from home due to the lack of fans, and more upsets than a toddler in a world without cookies. And so, at this weird quarter-season international break, I’m stepping back to reflect on the long-term.

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The question at hand: how will Arsenal fare in the top-four fight this season? In our pre-season predictions, most of our writers predicted that they would finish between fourth and sixth, a prediction that I still stand by, despite a rocky run of form. But the most important factor to consider in the course of accomplishing that goal is, who will we have to beat to get there?

Excepting the past year and a half, I would usually be able to write about the ‘big six’, and end the article there. However, that’s just not true this season. Leicester, Southampton, Aston Villa and Everton are all in the fight, not to mention Wolves hanging around as they typically do. So, much to my joy, I’ll be doubling that number within this piece. Here’s Arsenal’s rival analysis for the ten clubs standing between them and a top-four finish.

Everton

The Toffees’ first eight matchweeks have been opposite ends of the spectrum. Having posted 12 points from their first four matches, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin in particular setting the world alight – and leading many of us to wonder why we don’t have a striker who can score – they’ve turned 180º, drawing the Merseyside derby at home, then losing three on the bounce.

James Rodriguez has inevitably got injured again, however briefly, and after Richarlison’s red card in the derby, the team has ceased clicking. They’re parked in seventh at the moment, and while they may not continue their electric form for the rest of the season, they’re likely to be an obstacle as Arsenal look to move back up the table.

Arsenal have yet to play against Carlo Ancelotti’s men, and our first meeting against the team in blue comes on Saturday, December 19th, as Goodison Park. These are two teams who don’t tend to draw, with just two from 13 meetings since the 2014/15 season. Arsenal have won nine of those ties, but considering the topsy-turvy nature of this season…

Predicted Finish: 8th.

Liverpool

One of the most interesting case-studies in English football at the moment. They’re certainly nowhere near as dominant as they were this time last season, and with practicaly their entire defence out injured, they could be made to pay in coming weeks. As proven by Villa, their right flank is especially susceptible to the counter.

That being said, they’re still 99-point, Champions League and title-winning Liverpool. Counting them out will be a hard sell, especially with Diogo Jota and Naby Keita coming off the bench. Gini Wjnaldum is also in sparkling form for the Netherlands at the moment, and should lead the midfield upon returning.

Arsenal lost 3-1 to them in our first of two Anfield encounters in the space of a week, the second of which we won. But the Champions face a difficult run of form before Christmas – Leicester, Wolves, Brighton, Fulham, and Spurs make up five games in four weeks, not to mention their renewed Champions League efforts in a week’s time. Expect them to drop more points, but eventually re-surge into winning form after the holidays.

Predicted finish: 2nd.

Manchester City

The Citizens are struggling. Sitting in tenth, one spot above Arsenal on goal difference alone, they’re certainly further back than they’d like to be. Games are being decided more from the brilliance of Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne, with both players appearing increasingly frustrated. When those two have an off-day, City drop points.

Their problems stem from wanting to play beautiful, attacking football. However, against teams who sit in a low-lying block – which is to say, everybody that plays them these days – their overloads in the final third become too top-heavy, exposing their center-backs, and the system as a whole, to the counter. They also restrict their own space, and are liable to turn the ball over as a result.

It’s a weakness Arsenal exposed in our 2-0 FA Cup win during Project Restart, and an area of exploitation that Leicester stomped all over this September during their 5-2 rout. What’s more, City haven’t scored more than one goal in five games this season, and while they’ve never been held scoreless, they’re a shadow of their former selves.

But, it’s a Pep Guardiola side. Expect them to rebound, either after this international break or after the Christmas period. If they time it right, they should be able to barnstorm up the table, and fulfill my prediction that they’ll retake the title.

Predicted Finish: 1st.

Manchester United

The Red Devils have had a torrid start to the season. Collecting ten points from a possible 24, they’re suffering from a negative goal difference, and a bewildering run of form. Some weeks – the 4-1 win over Newcastle, and their pulverizing 5-0 win over RB Leipzig stand out – they’re unbeatable, but their 1-3, 0-1, and 1-6 losses at home to Newcastle, Arsenal, and Spurs cast a doubting spotlight on their abilities.

Much of this inconsistency is the hallmark of Ole Gunnar Solskjær. He just can’t seem to figure out the tactics that work best for this United side – my particular favorite is the instance against Spurs, where he quite literally clapped his hands and shouted “wakey wakey,” at a shambolic United side, in order to motivate them (hint, it didn’t work) – and as a result, they just can’t seem to chain good form together.

I don’t think they’re capable of pulling together a run like they did last year, where they went 13 unbeaten to regain a Champions League place for the year. In fact, barring an FA Cup win, they won’t make Europa League next season. It’ll be a rude awakening.

Predicted Finish: 7th.

Chelsea

Chelsea blew us all away with one of the best transfer windows of world history, and their recent resurgence at the hands of long-time Arsenal target Hakim Ziyech has been heartbreaking to say the least. They’ve scored the most goals in the league this season, at 20 – Arsenal have nine, for reference – and despite Frank Lampard’s continued insistence that Mason Mount is the second coming of David Beckham, continue to dominate.

They currently sit fifth in the table, but arguably should be first. They deserved to win against Man Utd and Southampton, although they also deserved to lose to West Brom. It all evens out for the Blues, who are primed to continue their upward rampage.

Chelsea are our Boxing Day fixture, and the match will be a hotly contested one, especially considering a certain FA Cup this August. If the earful I got from Chelsea fans is anything to go off, Frank Lampard’s men will be looking for revenge. It’s at the Emirates, which at this point means bupkis, but it’ll be nice to see a win. Our away game at Stamford Bridge is our third match of May, meaning a win there could be pivotal to a top four charge.

Chelsea are a side to watch this season. They won’t finish ahead of City or Liverpool, but they’ll make it a fight.

Predicted Finish: 3rd.

Spurs

Every word after this paragraph is being etched into my hand by Dolores Umbridge’s ‘special’ quill. That’s how much this hurts. I really hate Spurs.

That being said, I don’t think we’re going to get to celebrate St. Totteringham’s Day this year, unless we find some magic by the name of Dominik Szoboszlai, Houssem Aouar, or Jack Grealish this January that allows us to play Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang through the middle, finally.

Jose Mourinho’s Spurs look really strong. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has reinvented himself as a pure No. 6, their midfield is clicking for the first time in years, and Harry Kane and Heung-min Son have a combined 25 goal contributions over eight games. While they’re seriously outperforming their xG, at an unsustainable rate, they still have Gareth Bale and Steven Bergwijn to pick up the scraps. Scary stuff in north London.

Their only loss was on the opening day to Everton, and they’re grinding out results in a Mourinho-like fashion – in other words, 1-0 wins with the occasional five goal thriller thrown in the mix. And in a very un-Spursy fashion, they’re staying healthy. You hate to see it.

But they are Spurs, don’t forget. They’ll finish fourth, but a long way off the top three, due to some late bottling, and probably aided by Harry Kane’s ankle ligaments being built of balsa wood.

Predicted Finish: 4th.

Wolves

Wolves aren’t looking quite their normal selves this year. Daniel Podence is covering for Diogo Jota quite nicely, and the midfield is as impressive as always, but Adama Traore hasn’t quite found his feet this season, and they’re seriously missing Matt Doherty. Semedo is a talented player, but needs time to adjust.

Fernando Marçal, Ruben Vinagre, and the young Rayan Aït-Nouri have tag-teamed to cover for the injured Jonny, but Wolves left flank has still looked susceptible to the counter so far this season. Still, they’re a powerful side, and not one to be taken lightly.

They’ll be an obstacle, but if Arsenal can do as West Ham and Man City have, and get behind their backline, we can find quite a bit of joy. We’ve been regularly successful against the Wanderers, and let’s hope it can continue.

Predicted Finish: 9th.

Leicester

The Foxes, as could be said around this time last season, sit top of the table. Brendan Rodgers has worked another tactical masterclass up to this point, resting players strategically throughout the season to maximize their ability while keeping them healthy. His lineup has already been Swiss-cheesed by injuries, and it’s clear he wants to buck that trend as soon as he can.

They’ve only lost to Villa and West Ham, two sides with a penchant for giant-killing this season, and have proven they can go toe-to-toe with the big teams consistently. They’re a team to watch.

However, they’re also a side that starts well, but gets worse throughout the year, as their aging side begins to take its toll. If they can turn that around, it might spell greater success than they’ve had since their miracle in 2015/16, but they’ll be our main contender for fifth place in the table, assuming we can get that high.

Predicted Finish: 5th.

Southampton

The Saints have carries their electric form from Project Restart into this season, and as goals have begun to come from sources other than Danny Ings, they’ve begun to look like a real threat. Sat in sixth place, they boast a seriously strong backline with a number of up-and-coming centre-backs, and Che Adams, Moussa Djenepo, and James Ward-Prowse are all in stunning form at the moment.

Arsenal have yet to travel to the south coast yet this season. We play them first on January 27th at the St. Mary’s, with the date of our home match against them TBC, due to local and international cup restrictions. They won’s post any real threat to out top-four finish, but they might just be able to hold up some of our opponents.

Predicted Finish: 11th or lower.

Aston Villa

The last side in this list, Aston Villa sit sixth on grit and merit alone, having continued the fighting spirit that saw them avoid relegation by a point last campaign. Their 7-2 win over Liverpool will go down in history, but they, like Everton, won four from four to start the season. Unlike Everton, they’ve rebounded from their losing slide to beat us 3-0 at the Emirates. I still can’t get over how bad we looked, but also how good they did.

They’re a side with very few weaknesses when they start their strongest XI, but that’s assuming they stay healthy. They’re also notably reliant on Grealish to do just about everything, and although Ollie Watkins has helped shoulder the burden, and a healthy John McGinn is supporting the England starlet, sooner or later, he’ll hit a dry patch. When he does, they’ll tumble down the table.

But not so far as last year. If they can even halve their current form over the rest of the season, they’ll be in with a shot of a top-half finish. Not enough to trouble us, but enough to make the mid-table battle seriously interesting.

Predicted Finish: 10th or lower.

Now for those of you who don’t realize, that means Arsenal will finish sixth this season, if all goes to plan. Which means, unless the Europa League is what we want to play in (again) next season, we have to win it in six months’ time.

But first, we have to overcome some seriously tough opposition. At least eight clubs stand in our way of a top six finish, let along top-four. And believe me, there’s nothing I want more than the latter. But we have to be realistic. With our current form, a Europa League place would be a blessing.