Arsenal: Ivan Toney availability reliant on key factor at Brentford

The search for striker reinforcements at Arsenal continues as the Gunners prepare for up to three of their own leaving the club in the summer transfer window. Ivan Toney is a name being mentioned across the Premier League, and he could be available for transfer at Brentford under one condition.

Having lost 26-goal striker Ollie Watkins to Aston Villa last summer, as well as forward Said Benrahma to West Ham, it became the most crucial piece of transfer business for Brentford to replace the goals in their side.

Bringing in Peterborough’s Ivan Toney on a deal potentially rising to £15m, they secured a frontman in blistering form, having recorded a career-high 26 goals with the League One side in the 2019/20 campaign.

Even still, he was never expected to reach similar figures in the Championship where he is not only the top scorer in the division, but also the highest scoring Englishman across Europe this season. His 25 goals in 33 league outings have been added to with a further nine assists, a remarkable figure that has helped the Bees move up into a top two place behind current leaders Norwich.

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Arsenal target Ivan Toney will be available for Gunners in the summer transfer window depending on one key factor at Brentford as they push for Premier League promotion

His form has naturally brought with it admiring glances from further up the English football pyramid, with reports stating he is on a three-man striker shortlist at West Ham alongside Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham and the Gunners’ own Eddie Nketiah.

There have also been international mentions for Toney as the European Championships come about in the summer, as his electric form is impossible to miss whether he is plying his trade in the Premier League or not.

As per football.london following reports earlier in the year, Arsenal are ‘paying an increasingly keen interest’ as they plan for their own overhaul of the forward department, with the futures of Alexandre Lacazette, Folarin Balogun and Nketiah up in the air.

Talk over Toney has continued to escalate since the turn of the year, and if Arsenal were to make an approach for the 24-year-old, it could hinge on one crucial factor.

Key Factor in Arsenal Pursuit of Ivan Toney

Last season, Brentford looked destined for promotion to the Premier League, only for a capitulation in the final two matches of the Championship season – defeats to Stoke and Barnsley – to leave them settling for a play-off berth.

They successfully navigated their way past Swansea in the semi-finals but were undone by Fulham at Wembley in extra-time.

This season they look well-placed for a play-off spot at the very minimum, although a top-two finish is firmly in their sights and a strong possibility given their impressive form. They’ve been strongly aided by Toney’s superb numbers, a vital ingredient in their promotion charge.

Should their bid to reach the upper tier of English football fall flat, however, then the model that has been prevalent throughout their time in the Championship will once again come into effect. Namely, selling for a profit.

Over the past eight years the Bees have made more than £150m from player sales, an approach that is the only way the west London side can currently remain financially sustainable. For the current campaign they’ve moved into a new stadium, and with no fans in attendance to boost matchday revenue, the situation remains untouched. Should Brentford not secure promotion, they will need to sell.

How Much Ivan Toney Would Cost Arsenal

In the eventuality of Brentford securing their place in next season’s Premier League, they are in a strong position both financially and contractually to charge an astronomical fee for Toney.

Signed only last summer on a five-year contract, the striker’s immense form, length of deal, age and homegrown status make him an attractive prospect to any side in the top tier.

If Thomas Frank’s side fail to take advantage of their strong position heading into the final two months of the season then the figure they would accept is said to be in the region of £30m, similar to what Aston Villa paid for Watkins at the start of the campaign. That figure is a manageable one for Arsenal if the secure funding for their current crop as, otherwise, his fee would surely be beyond their reach.

Two blistering seasons at League One and now Championship level are not the same as Premier League and European football, but an unwillingness to look down divisions in the past has been one of the criticisms of Arsenal’s recruitment. There is, of course, no guarantees in doing so and uncertainties over whether they can cut it in the Premier League are unavoidable – not to mention fan backlash for not signing a ‘big name’.

All of which doesn’t mean those in the Football League aren’t talented. Sometimes a player is simply unavoidable with the form they show, as is the case with Toney.

Arsenal need a striker with aerial ability and a well-rounded skill set, which the 24-year-old certainly boasts. He’s scored five headers this season, including two from corners, all despite being just a smidgen taller than Lacazette, and the array of goals he’s bagged this season are a testament to his composure in front of goals.

With no obvious flaws in his game, his name is certain to be high on the list of options for Arsenal come the summer transfer window opening.