Arsenal: Emi Buendia & Odegaard statistical and tactical comparison

Arsenal want another No. 10. Or a playmaker. Or a versatile wide player. Or…what exactly? What we do know is that Mikel Arteta wants to bring Martin Odegaard back to north London, as well as Emi Buendia. Or is it just one of them? Hmmm.

The two main names on supporters lips this summer are the two listed. There is no doubting that defensive reinforcements are urgently needed in both full-back departments but as important as they are, they don’t quite have the same toe-tingling allure of those further up the pitch.

That isn’t to say that if a Noussair Mazraoui walked through the Emirates doors, or an Andre Onana, there wouldn’t be reason for excitement, mind you.

But Arteta knows he needs another forward option who can complement Emile Smith Rowe, the only current player in the squad who is a natural No. 10.

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Arsenal: Emi Buendia & Martin Odegaard statistical and tactical comparison and understanding what Arteta wants from summer transfer window

Odegaard joined in January and had a mixed six months. When on-song he was majestic. Games like Tottenham at home and West Ham away were typically endearing performances, those where he had the game by the scruff of the neck and ran it in technically delightful fashion.

Other times it wasn’t as pleasing on the eye. Someone who thrives in teams who dominate possession, he was guilty of going missing on occasion even if there were times where injury and fitness played their part.

Now back at Real Madrid, the desire for a reunion is strong.

"“We have a very clear and strong opinion on what we’d like to do,” the manager said. “Hopefully, we have given him the hope and the feeling that this could be a good place for him here.”"

Any move is, of course, not in the Gunners’ hands. Carlo Ancelotti has returned as manager with his own ideas, those that currently suggest a future in Spain for Odegaard. Arsenal will continue to press on nevertheless and if the opportunity arises, one that is financially viable, they will move.

But does the pursuit of Emi Buendia put a stop to that? Arsenal have lodged their opening bid of £30m+ for the Argentine, and while rejected, are expected to return with an improved figure.

The question is, if it is one or the other, why is it two very different players in mind? Both are playmakers, sure, but in terms of profile there are very few similarities.

So, what is the plan?

Continued…

Emi Buendia and Martin Odegaard Statistical Comparison

If the money was right and the availability there, Odegaard would already be back at Arsenal. Arteta couldn’t help but wax lyrical about the Norwegian throughout his time at the club, praising his work ethic, leadership, engine and overall quality.

He’s also a big fan of Buendia. Looking at it financially, it seems highly unlikely (big fat no) that both can make the move to north London this summer. Looking at it realistically, it’s also highly unlikely that both can fit into the starting lineup without two of Emile Smith Rowe, Bukayo Saka or Nicolas Pepe dropping out. With no European football next season, it’s even less likely.

From an ability standpoint (fbref), however, the two are incomparable.

Odegaard is a possession footballer. A dictator of tempos and rhythms. Someone who links and sculpts, moulding those around him into cohesive patterns of partnerships. His link-up play and ball retention stand out from his spell at Arsenal, sitting in the 96th and 94th percentile compared to the rest of Europe during that time.

As far as defensive output there is next to none. He’s in the low 40th percentiles for tackles and interceptions, and in the 31st for ball recoveries. Not blessed with pace, it’s clear where his skills lie.

This is someone who a delightful first touch. When Arsenal played well he invariably did, too. he has an ability to draw in opponents out of their positions and shift the ball on at the moment, with the exacting weight. His touch of distribution is excellent.

Being the linking piece, his goal output isn’t great, sitting in the 9th percentile for goals with an overall npxG+xA (non-penalty expected goals and expected assists) of just 0.29. Regarding what he delivered, it’s key to note just how flat Arsenal were in the final third as well as how it was a sample size of just 14 starts at a new club.

A profile that would delight at Arsenal, but one so different to Buendia that you wonder what it is exactly that Arteta wants? Let’s take a look at the Norwich man.

Continued…

Emi Buendia Statistical Analysis for Arsenal

First impressions of Buendia are fairly straightforward: he scores goals and he makes assists. Boiling down the multitude of issues at Arsenal this season, they’ve lacked quite heavily in both those departments. The latter obviously a byproduct of the former.

In comparison to Odegaard, the 24-year-old is far more well-rounded. On the eye he’s a silky operator who near enough is given license to pick up the positions he feels he can be of most threat and then use the space in front to attack.

Aesthetically pleasing with his two-footedness, his ability to play inside or outside, in tight corridors or with open grass to cover mean he’s a relentless threat. Slotting into positions across the pitch, he’s someone you pay your ticket price to go see.

It’s impossible to look past his 15 goals and 16 assists in the Championship last season, a tally that helped him scoop the division’s Player of the Season award. His progressive passing is in the 77th percentile, xG from shot creation a wonderfully high 77th also, while his xG from ball progression is 68th percentile. Goal threat in both forms.

He takes more shots than Odegaard, has more key passes and gets into the box with greater frequency. The argument will always be that Buendia plays in the Championship (those stats are adjusted for Premier League standard), but even from two seasons ago his numbers stacked up in a dreadful Canaries side. He made 83 key passes that season (the fourth most in the division) and by April 2020 no player had completed 50+ tackles, 50+ chances created and 50+ take-ons completed.

It really was utterly astounding how he stayed at Carrow Road.

So, statistically, it’s plain to see the differences in the two. They excel in different departments, not to mention they both play in different positions: Odegaard is a No.10 who thrives in the right half space and Buendia is a right-winger who drifts infield and can attack centrally.

With two totally different playmakers in mind, what is the plan?

Continued…

Mikel Arteta’s No. 10 Plan Next Season

At this very moment the signs are leaning heavily towards Buendia being an Arsenal player next season, unless Emi Martinez doesn’t turn into Barry White and smooth talk his Argentina international teammate into moving to the midlands.

Working on the basis he arrives, where does he play? He is a right-winger by trade but is so often found in central areas and has the outstanding defensive statistics that make him of real value in the No. 10 slot. Equally, there is scope for a 4-3-3 system with the Argentine as the right-sided No. 8 – or the ‘double 10’s’ that Arteta likes.

Is that what the boss is going for? It does seem too soon to make that formation shift after one summer, and splashing out up to £40m on someone who isn’t naturally a No. 8 is an intriguing use of resources. So wonderfully well-rounded and with an uncanny ability to score goals, a trait that can’t in any way be understated, moving more centrally long-term does have potential, though.

As for Odegaard he has to be the No. 10. Granted the sample size is small, but when he lined up in a 4-3-3 last season the role didn’t suit him. He isn’t quick enough nor strong enough in the tackle. Thus his arrival would have to be in a 4-2-3-1 as the operator in the pockets.

If Buendia does come in, will Arteta do some further shifting? Buendia out on the right takes Nicolas Pepe out of the equation – which feels unjust – and opens the door for Saka on the left and Smith Rowe in the middle. Not the most physically imposing trio behind the No. 9 but one to salivate at the thought of. There are endless possibilities.

Conclusion: Perhaps this signing is more important than we think. Maybe there is a reason it’s one of the first ones to be worked on this summer. If Odegaard arrives then Arteta already knows how to line up; if Buendia is bought then the shape and system could merge in tandem.

Or, Arteta could break the KSE piggy bank and buy them both. Or, Arsenal could dally over fees and miss out on either. Please not the latter.