Arsenal: Why Hakan Calhanoglu transfer should be avoided

Still without the summer transfer window officially opening, Arsenal are whittling their way down their list of targets in the manner nobody wants to see. It’s not because these players have been signed, but because they’re slipping away from the club’s fingers.

Emi Buendia is a done deal and along with Martin Odegaard, they were the two individuals that Arsenal have – at least as far as the reports suggests – been most heavily targeting. Bids were lodged for the Argentine and the club fell short, while despite some internal confidence, any deal for Odegaard looks like a stretch at this stage.

Which is why clubs draw up lists. It’s why you scout numerous players on the basis that you’re first choice options don’t pull through. Rarely ever will a club secure their number one target, as much as managers will claim to have done following a signing.

Rumours are also rumours. Even some links by reputable sources are countered by equally reputable ones the other way. As has been seen with the recent Ruben Neves speculation.

Arsenal interest in transfer of AC Milan’s Hakan Calhanoglu just lazy habits for free agents in summer window

But as the club work their way down in sight of other playmaker options, a few names on the Arsenal summer transfer window bingo card return to the fore. The latest (but also not latest at all) is Hakan Calhanoglu.

News of interest that has seemingly remained since 2015 comes via James Benge. While it’s not sure how high up on the list he is, the forward is considered an option and an alternative to Odegaard should the Gunners fail in their pursuit.

Why would Arsenal be interested in Calhanoglu? Let’s avoid the elephant in the room and look at from a statistical and stylistic point of view.

What is Calhanoglu? Well, he’s an extremely adaptable forward who it feels like has been around for decades but is in fact only 27 years old. Fielded either out on the left wing or in the central attacking slot, his outstanding delivery is among the best in Serie A – and indeed Europe.

AC Milan have seen him rack up 80 goals and assists in 172 outings and if they could (they’re trying), they’d probably keep him on longer. The issue is, however, his contract is up and an agreement over wages can’t be found.

If this were a deal Arteta and co wrapped up, what would be bring?

Continued…

Hakan Calhanoglu Statistical Analysis for Arsenal

Most players have their forte; their crowning glory trait that they’re best known for, whether it’s late penalty box arrivals or an Arjen Robben cut inside bend one top corner move. For Calhanoglu, he excels when the ball is sat still.

In other words, a set piece specialist.

His expected assists compared to player of his position across the last 365 days is 0.32 per 90 minutes, putting him in the 97th percentile. Those numbers are glorious, and they’re backed up by 3.38 key passes per 90 which has him in the 99th percentile.

Where do they come from, though? They almost solely come from dead balls. Using Understat, we can see his total xA for the 2020/21 season with Milan was 8.86, with 3.34 of that coming from open play. He notched ten assists in the division and scored four goals.

Few on the continent boast a delivery quite like his and free-kicks, whether indirect or not, have his name on them. Furthermore, you want him on corners.

That is playing him short, however, as his overall passing figures are immense and his SCA (shot creating actions) from live passes is 3.59 per 90, putting him in the 97th percentile, while he also averages close to six progressive passes per game.

What’s not to like? Arsenal were hopeless on attacking set pieces last season and relied on Willian for the best delivery around. For a team that struggles to create, the additional threat of set pieces could easily have bumped a few more points on the table, whether from free-kicks or corners. He isn’t too shabby at carries or entries into the final third, either.

But this is not a deal Arsenal should pursue.

Continued…

Arsenal Should Not Sign Hakan Calhanoglu

Going over what he does bring, what doesn’t he bring? At 27 years old he doesn’t bring any Premier League experience, with all he’s achieved thus far having come in Serie A. He’s made a strong name for himself and accumulated some very impressive numbers during that time. Calhanoglu is a talented footballer.

He’s also a different kind of creator and three assists from open play last season isn’t exactly mesmerising. Superb dead ball numbers add to the allure but this team should not be out signing players just because they can kick a ball when it’s not moving.

That isn’t the only string to his bow, but for a team that wants to sustain spells of pressure in the final third with as much ball retention, someone who isn’t a high presser or a strong tackler isn’t going to maximise that possession.

But beyond the statistical side of things, it’s the pure laziness of it all that doesn’t sit well. Buendia and Odegaard, two players costing around £40m may not arrive so, working down the list comes a 27-year-old contract rebel who is free. It’s indolent, uninspiring poor planning.

Calhanoglu will arrive on huge wages due to his contract situation and isn’t in any way certain of being a starter in the team (he shouldn’t) with Emile Smith Rowe, Bukayo Saka and Nicolas Pepe in the three behind the striker. If you’re chasing a game late on you don’t use up one of your substitutions on the hope you win a free-kick.

Of course, where Arsenal are now doesn’t mean the club can be turning their noses up at every available player who isn’t ‘inspiring’. The club is in turmoil, its reputation dwindling and its pulling power weakening. However, free agent Calhanoglu who is leaving Milan because the €4m per year they’ve offered isn’t satisfactory is hardly the kind of character you want in your side.

Seeing the ship sink, it stinks of snatching at the first life jacket with a hole in it as opposed to keeping a look for a raft. Calhanoglu is a talented footballer but he won’t improve this team drastically. He’ll earn big money and leave for free in three years.

At present he’s an ‘option’, so hopefully he’s just one that features at the bottom of the second page.