Arsenal: 4 reasons Arteta should go 4-3-3 vs Tottenham

What to do? Arsenal host Tottenham in the North London Derby on Sunday with Mikel Arteta boasting an unwanted record against these bitter rivals during his managerial career.

Facing Spurs three times competitively, the manager has seen his side lose twice in the Premier League with 2-0 and 2-1 scorelines respectively, finally banishing some demons in the 2-1 home win last season.

Meeting in pre-season in the wrong side of north London brought with it another defeat, this time by 1-0, and heading into the weekend’s clash Arteta will be hoping to keep his home record against Spurs in tact.

Trying to predict how this one will go is near enough impossible. Tottenham have held the upper hand for far too long as far as results go, but at home Arsenal have been relatively strong against their fierce rivals.

4 reasons Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta should go with a 4-3-3 formation against Tottenham in the North London Derby

How much does form come into it and what can be made of the records Arteta’s side has when trailing at half-time or leading at half-time? There is a lot to unpack and fret over.

One of the key talking points from the red half of this discussion is surrounding Granit Xhaka’s potential involvement and the shape Arsenal will use. If you were being pressed to put a percentage on how likely the Swiss was to return to the team immediately following his suspension, would it be around 90%?

Arteta adores the midfielder and sees him as a crucial cog in the machine, but after securing three clean sheets and three wins with various iterations of a 4-3-3 shape, why change? Xhaka coming back immediately infers the return of the double pivot, so what if Arsenal just go for it?

There are plenty of valid reasons to stick with the 4-2-3-1 and add Xhaka’s experience into the fold, granted. Yet after the continuity of playing with a single pivot in recent weeks there are also a host of reasons not to diverge. Four in particular spring to mind.

1. Keep the Momentum Going

Starting with the obvious, the old phrase ‘don’t change a winning team’ goes hand-in-hand with ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’. Probably because they’re the same thing.

The previous three results haven’t catapulted Arsenal into a relentless machine of unwavering destruction and solidity. Nobody is getting carried away. What they have done, however, is work some way towards building a structure the side understands and has found moderate success in.

We’ve seen of late that there is life without Xhaka. It isn’t all too bad, either.

With Albert Sambi Lokonga bringing endearing progressive and carrying qualities on the ball coupled with Thomas Partey looking immense in the single pivot and adding centrality and line-breaking ability, there is no gaping Swiss-sized hole that is noticeable.

Tottenham are a completely different proposition to Norwich, Burnley or AFC Wimbledon, but they too are likely to play with just one holding midfielder in Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, so matching them up and continuing the approach with two No. 10’s in Martin Odegaard and Emile Smith Rowe has the scope to be successful.

Additionally, Xhaka hasn’t played since the Manchester City defeat, where he was sent off, and also contracted COVID-19 since. What we’ve seen recently is what Arsenal can be. Going back to what it has been may also have a negative impact on the crowd.

Far, far from perfect, it still isn’t broke. Don’t ‘fix’ it.

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2. Tottenham Will Be Expecting Granit Xhaka to Start

Pretty much the entire football world foresees Xhaka going straight back into the starting lineup. Arsenal rebuffed Roma’s meagre offer even after the midfielder expressed a desire to join them and then as a result handed him a new contract.

No need going over how ludicrous that decision was again.

But the bottom line is that he was given extended terms. Arteta has an infatuation with the 28-year-old that runs deep. He sees all the better traits. Some say he can’t see the wood for the trees.

Spurs will likely have two plans in place for either outcome. It’s the smart thing to do. Which will they’ll be most focused on, however, will undoubtedly be a double pivot with Partey and Xhaka where the Swiss drops into that left centre-back slot as he so often does to progress the ball from deep.

In a fixture that will hinge so heavily on who gets the opening goal, the early stages will be crucial. Catching Tottenham cold before they have time to settle and adjust in the game with the home crowd on their backs is one of the more effective ways to get this game into a state that benefits Arsenal.

Surprise them.

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3. Tottenham Struggle When Being Pressed

It’s a noticeable weakness of theirs and if Arsenal are to fully exploit it then they’ll have a better chance of doing so with in this system.

4-3-3 resembles a 4-1-4-1 more than anything, and what it would mean is having both Emile Smith Rowe and Martin Odegaard in central positions to force the ball wide or long. Aubameyang may only have one goal this season but he has busted numerous guts pressing from the front, while Nicolas Pepe has put in some stellar defensive work too.

Does it come with risk? Absolutely.

Should Tottenham beat the press then obviously Arsenal are far more exposed. Partey in the single pivot can only do so much and it will require absolute focus from Ben White, Gabriel and Takehiro Tomiyasu who will be holding a high line to squeeze the press. Everyone is aware of Son Heung-min’s pace in behind and that threat will always be on for the visitors.

But if the double pivot resumes then Arsenal not only have fewer effective pressers in forward areas but run another risk of having Partey join in the press, which if beaten leaves the vulnerable-to-anyone-running-at-him Xhaka manning the screen all alone.

Instead of pressing with 4/4.5 bodies, Arsenal can push higher with five in a more conjoined press. It’d be bold and it’d be risky, but hit them where it hurts. Especially in the vital opening stages.

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4. Going 4-3-3 Allows Arsenal to Keep Nicolas Pepe in the Team

More goalscorers, more chances of goals. Right? Isn’t that how it works? Well, pretty much, yeah.

It would be more of a 4-1-4-1 as mentioned even with Odegaard coming deep as he did against Burnley – sometimes even deeper than Partey – to add some structure in the centre of the pitch, but crucially this system allows Arsenal to add in another attacking player in the starting lineup.

Nicolas Pepe is the obvious choice.

Tottenham have not looked especially stable at right-back with Emerson Royal still finding his feet, and as seen against Wilfried Zaha he has struggled when one-on-one with tricky, pacey wide players. Putting Bukayo Saka out on the right, his best position, and playing Pepe inverted will open up the chances to isolate the Brazilian and have joy in that flank.

With the addition of Tierney overlapping Arsenal can create numerical advantages on both flanks since Saka is someone Spurs know they can’t leave unattended.

For a team struggling for goals, this attacking approach can pummel the Tottenham goal early doors, get the advantage craved and manage the game from there with the extra pace in wide areas to strike on the counter-attack.

Pepe hasn’t been especially fruitful in front of goal but he’s worked his socks off all season, contesting every ball, jumping for every aerial challenge and relishing the physical aspect. If he gets hit, he gets back up, and that attitude is invaluable in a North London Derby.

That, and the fact he knows where the goal is better than most others in the team.