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Ahead of this season kicking off, and most definitely after three matches in, hopes of Arsenal achieving a top six place in the Premier League were admittedly low.
Fully invested into the recruitment strategy the club were undergoing, even if there were some qualms over the exact personnel selected, the general view was that it would take one campaign at the least to truly see the fruits of that labour.
Even if the end of the previous campaign finished strongly there was a realisation that the teams challenging for European berths were streaks ahead of the quality Arsenal possessed, and that there were still lingering question marks over Mikel Arteta’s suitability to the role.
Faith has been placed in him through thick and thin. Handed the combination to the club safe and continuously backed publicly, the transfers secured over the summer have proven to be more immediate answers than initially anticipated.
Arsenal top six rival analysis: Manchester United, Tottenham, West Ham, Leicester, Wolves an Everton assessed in Premier League hunt for Europe
The club’s summer spending is proving to be a successful even if it’s too soon to fully deem it a ‘success’.
And after vastly improved performances have produced the corresponding results, Arsenal remarkably find themselves just three points behind third-placed Manchester City in the Premier League table.
Too soon to dream, eyes are fixed on the ongoings in and around them in the table. Top four is a possibility, and one to aim for, but realistically it’s still the top six that is being looked at.
And so, with over a quarter of the season down, how are the Gunners’ rivals faring and who might be the main challengers?
Disclaimer: all league standings as they were prior to matchweek 11
1. West Ham
One aspect working in the Gunners’ favour has yet to be as beneficial to them as hoped when it comes to West Ham. It’s early days, but the lack of European football this season is still yet to have its full impact on their London rivals.
The Hammers are a team transformed under David Moyes. They look very, very good. Declan Rice looks even better.
With the thin squad they have – no suitable striker after Michail Antonio – their European campaign has had no bearing on their league form. Sitting in in the top four they look closer than anyone to sneaking into the what was felt like being a set in stone Champions League places ahead of the season starting.
The quantity of matches takes its toll later on as the season progresses, and while West Ham are showing no signs of fatigue at this moment, the hope is that they will begin to tail off as they look set for extended involvement in the Europa League and are still going strong in the Carabao Cup.
Moyes’ side are only a few injuries away from being in trouble, though. Rice and Antonio are irreplaceable in their squad.
As it stands, however, they don’t look like faltering.
Continued…
2. Manchester United
Manchester United are fifth in the table, but have been utterly reliant on individual brilliance to get them there.
This is a team (manager) bereft of ideas. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is making it up as he goes along. While their most recent outing was a 3-0 hammering of Tottenham, they weren’t especially great. Spurs were atrocious and classy moments from their key players Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes saw them through.
There is no direction, noticeable patterns of play or shape. Every time it looks like Solskjaer is finally out for the count he gets dragged back up off the canvas by a certain forward.
The man is inevitable. And at 36 years old he’s still an outstanding footballer.
How long can it go on for? The indifferent results and performances will either be salvaged by brilliance or left to fester as they are.
What is frustrating is that the squad is so rich in quality – Jadon Sancho doesn’t even get a game despite being one of the best young players on the planet over the past few seasons – and that alone will see them hover in and around the top four places.
Their manager has taken them as far as he can, but can the players take them further despite the dearth of direction? They could be leaving a gaping hole in the top four hunt.
Continued…
3. Wolves
Dark horses?
It’s been an interestingly similar start to the season for Bruno Lage’s side. They too lost their opening three Premier League matches despite them taking over the xG mantle from Brighton, and have since climbed up to seventh in the table, just one point behind Arsenal. However, their opening three defeats without scoring were not reflective of their performances.
Playing a distinctly more attractive brand of football compared to the former man in charge, Lage has Wolves operating in a well-worked mid-pressing style where upon winning the ball back they transition with ferocious pace.
Can their run continue? Since losing their opening three games they have, funnily enough, not been quite as dominating: Leeds outplayed them in their draw and Aston Villa’s late crumble was majorly of their own doing.
In terms of challenging for the top six they’re certainly not out of the question, but for a team adjusting style dramatically from Nuno Espirito Santo there are sure to be ups and downs.
They’ll surely invest in a midfielder come January as, once broken, the superb pairing of Joao Moutinho and Ruben Neves leaves a gap in the centre of the park that isn’t adequately filled elsewhere in their squad.
Most definitely a team on the up under Lage, though.
Continued…
4. Brighton
Will the time come when the rest of the division sits and truly takes note of Brighton?
The way their season is panning out is in stark contrast to how it unfolded last season. Finishing 16th in 2020/21, as per the xPTS table (based on xG accrued and xG conceded) they should have sat a full 12 places higher, in fifth.
Doing everything right, their lack of a goalscorer to finish off the chances they created saw them suffer dramatically.
Twist that around to this season and they are outperforming their xG, currently sitting eighth in the table whereas their xPTS tally would see them in 13th.
Key to their success has been some clever investing, but primarily keeping hold of Yves Bissouma. Graham Potter’s brand of football is exciting to watch, but now has the added benefit of being effective.
Coming from two goals down to draw away at Liverpool, for example, is the signs of a team fully invested in the methods and confident in their ability. However, xG always catches up with teams and failure to sign a reliable centre-forward (their window wasn’t perfect) could prove to be their downfall once again.
Continued…
5. Tottenham
It’s all about Antonio Conte.
Tottenham were spot on in their decision to sack Nuno Espirito Santo early into his tenure: the football was insipid, the players were clueless, the atmosphere toxic and the signs of improvement nonexistent.
However, he should never have been appointed in the first place and the entire recruitment process over in the wrong half of north London was an unmitigated disaster.
It was brilliant.
Appointing Conte is, sadly, a real coup on Spurs’ part. He is one of the world’s finest but, as they say, you can’t polish a turd. Tottenham are still Tottenham and if he is to be a success at the club it will hinge on him getting the likes of Tanguy Ndombele up to acceptable fitness levels and finding a way to squeeze the best out of Harry Kane.
Their players can’t possibly be playing much worse and Conte is a man with a plan on averting that slide. How long it takes him to work with what he’s got and get his players on board remains to be seen. But they can’t be much worse, put it that way.
With a kind run of fixtures to come to kick off his tenure they could build a head of steam and regain their self-belief.
They are still, however, Tottenham Hotspur.
Continued…
6. Everton
It all started so well for Everton. Winning four of their opening six Premier League matches with some fine form from new signings Demarai Gray and Andros Townsend, the wheels have since come off for Rafa Benitez following the loss of Dominic Calvert-Lewin to injury.
The England striker carried his form over from the previous campaign but since being missing, his backup, Salomon Rondon, has hardly inspired.
Playing a very direct and unappealing brand of football under the Spaniard, teams who try to play through Everton have far more joy than those who aim to beat them in the air. Dominant in that department, a constantly changing backline is doing them no favours and the usual structure and discipline of a Benitez side has been missing.
As far as challenging for the top six places, of all the sides supposedly competing with Arsenal it is Everton who are least likely to pose a meaningful threat. In terms of overall quality they’re the weakest of those challenging.
While Aston Villa probably would have got a mention, Dean Smith is struggling to deal with the loss of Jack Grealish as his new arrivals are yet to click as a unit. Not in a great way, it would be surprising to see them in the mix come the end of the season.
Continued…
7. Leicester
Arsenal not having any European football this season is what gives them the edge over their fellow European rivals, with West Ham, Leicester and Manchester United all having to contend with midweek football. Lucky them.
Of those sides, none have suffered as much as a result of Leicester. Unfortunately, they are at serious risk of missing out on the knockout stages with tough matches to come in order to get out of their group.
Where they look weakest this season is at the back. Still boasting a strong attack – as the Gunners saw – with Jamie Vardy scoring and Patson Daka finding his feet, they will pose most sides issues going forward. But it can’t be understated how damaging losing Wesley Fofana has been for them.
If they are to exit the Europa League at the group stages then it could benefit them in the long-term as they push for a European berth in the league. They haven’t clicked yet but should they sort out their defence then they have every chance of embarking on a similarly decent stretch of form as they did last season.
Mind you, they’ve also bottled finishing in the top four in two successive campaigns and those demons are hard to shake. With just four wins from their opening ten league matches they have some way to go.
It would, however, be wrong to discount them so soon into the campaign.