Arsenal: 4 things needed to secure Premier League top four

Arsenal are on the right track. It sure feels like it anyway. Recent results have gone their way and while initial targets for the season won’t have included finishing in the top four, the circumstances have changed.

Prior to the season kicking off expectations were quelled. Arsenal had just come off the back of two successive eighth place finishes and even the most ambitious supporter saw the top four as a unachievable objective.

Setting targets before the season begins is the fairest way to make a judgement. In doing so you look at what there is and what you’re up against. In Arsenal’s case it wasn’t known how well the new players would perform in their debut seasons, but by setting your stall out early you aren’t influenced by events as the campaign progresses.

Nonetheless, top four has to be the aim now. Even if a top six finished would have been accepted – in the context of where Arsenal were, that is – the situation is as such that there is now a genuine chance of being involved on Tuesday and Wednesday nights once again.

Arsenal need four aspects of the season to go their way if they are to finish in the Premier League top four and return to the Champions League

That music back on the carpet? It’s been too long.

Before that tune starts humming in everyone’s heads there are 16 colossal matches standing in the Gunners’ way. They are, to use an old adage, all cup finals.

Winning each one of them will easily clinch a place, while it has the possibility of even taking Arsenal higher than fourth. Sadly, for obvious reasons, that simply won’t be happening.

Numerous variables come into play in order to secure a top four place in the Premier League, some of which are beyond the Gunners’ control. Looking at all the aspects that must come together, four standout dominoes need to fall into place apart from Arsenal simply winning their matches to end a four season run out of Europe’s elite competition.

1. Little to No Serious Injuries

The risk Arsenal ran when they opted against signing anyone in the January transfer window while allowing six players to leave was plainly clear. Suffer any significant, or even short-term, injuries and their paper thin becomes worryingly stretched.

Some players in the squad are irreplaceable in any case, but when the backups for their positions are brought in the drop off is stark.

Only two positions were under serious consideration in midfield and striker, so while Bukayo Saka being injured would be devastating with or without a new arrival, Alexandre Lacazette being unavailable is a considerable blow.

He may not score, at all, but he helps Arsenal to score. His intervention at Wolves set up Gabriel, and the whole team ticks when he’s essentially playing as the tip of a midfield diamond.

Across the whole squad Arsenal have to be crossing their fingers that the team stays healthy, which based on how the season has transpired already, and with there being roughly one game per week for the rest of the campaign, should  be manageable.

Maintaining the core 14/15 players is going to be imperative. The starting lineup and handful of substitutes are what got the club into the mix in the first place. Keeping them unscathed is arguably most important of all.

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2. More Tottenham, Manchester United, Wolves & West Ham Slip-Ups

For the past few seasons it has been less a case of who is the best of the top four pack and instead, somewhat bluntly, who is the least sh*t.

None of the sides hoping for Champions League salvation are pulling up trees and being the best of the rest will be enough to seal the deal.

Even still, Arsenal will require further mishaps from the likes of Tottenham, Manchester United, Wolves and West Ham if they are to claim fourth spot. As positive as one can be, Arteta’s side will drop more points across the 16 matches at times when they shouldn’t.

The recent slip-ups have been hugely beneficial, and as the race ebbs and flows between now and May 22, United will need to let more one goal leads slip, Spurs will have to keep dragging Antonio Conte down with them, West Ham’s European involvement has to impact their domestic campaign and Wolves’ tactical shape will come unstuck against more defensively oriented sides.

We get by with a little help from (not so close) friends. The battle of who can be least worse has commenced.

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3. Do Not Lose the Head-to-Head Matches

Glancing at the fixture list now offers up an incredibly inviting set of matches for Arsenal to see the season out. That is, of course, before factoring in the games that still need to be rearranged: Tottenham (A), Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H).

The Spurs game is gigantic. It wouldn’t be a surprise whatsoever if it gets moved to April so it can garner all the hype possible and be billed as a top-four-deciding encounter. Which, probably, it will be already.

As much as beating Tottenham on their patch is the sweetest feeling, and one supporters haven’t been able to soak up in the league since Tomas Rosicky’s rocket at White Hart Lane secured a 1-0 victory some nearly eight years ago, if given the chance then a draw would be taken.

That will depend on where the teams are in the league by that point but this will be a tight race in which the head-to-head matches will play a significant role. Arsenal also host Manchester United at the Emirates where once again losing is simply not acceptable.

Not known how the table will look come these fixtures, one absolute certainty is that defeat can be catastrophic. While Arsenal have already lost to United this season, there were fixtures that followed where that could be amended. In this tight race – it is still tight despite other results – not presenting the opponent with any boost becomes paramount.

Those two matches in particular are huge.

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4. No More Stupid Red Cards

It seems like such a non-issue and something that shouldn’t even need mentioning, but when a side find themselves battling it out with ten men on as many occasions as Arsenal it becomes a very real problem.

Six games in 2022 have seen two goals scored and four red cards issued.

Across Arteta’s 115 games in charge Arsenal players have collectively received 15 red cards. That’s a whopping one every 7.6 matches. So, working on averages, there are about two more to come across the remaining 16 games of the season.

It obviously doesn’t work like that, but it does raise alarm bells. Already this season we’ve seen how costly red cards can be, with the Manchester City home defeat standing out as one where Gabriel’s sending off completely turned the tide of a match Arsenal were in charge of.

There can’t be many more heroic Anfield 5-3-1’s left in the tank. It should be a formality but this team will not keep winning matches if they insist on doing so with fewer players than the opponent.

Equally, as in the case of Martinelli, while it won’t prove too costly since it’s a single game suspension, if the next one is a straight red then the impact will be all the more significant. With a squad like this one where the starting lineup is on a whole other level to the rest of the team, these things matter.

Just keep 11 players on the pitch. It shouldn’t have to be said, yet here we are.