Arsenal: 4 reasons top four race is not over

If sat down and given two seconds to answer the question, then no, Arsenal most likely will not finish in the Premier League top four this season. In the space of a week the mood has shifted dramatically.

Flying high after another battling performance saw the Gunners deservedly edge past Aston Villa, just 180 minutes of football later and the talk is around whether or not a top six place is even secure.

Their two games in hand over Tottenham evaporated without any points to show for it and now, having still played one fewer game, they trail Spurs by three points with a considerably worse goal difference.

Then factor in how damaging it is proving to be without Thomas Partey and Kieran Tierney and the situation becomes bleaker.

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4 reasons Arsenal can still make it into the Premier League top four ahead of Tottenham despite damaging back-to-back defeats

Keeping up to pace with Antonio Conte’s team will prove to be a seismic task. The vastly differing trajectories of the sides coupled with the absences of key men is putting Champions League football is serious risk. The odds are stacked firmly against Arsenal.

Is it game over? The table says no. That’s the angle to look at it from.

Despite being firmly up against it, there are four reasons to keep the faith. It’s thin faith, admittedly, but faith nevertheless.

It’s not over until it’s over, even if the cards will all have to fall Arsenal’s way.

1. Tottenham’s Unsustainable Scoring Rates

The sheer quantity of goals Tottenham are scoring is cause for concern. Of course it is. They have 12 in their last three matches and the form of Harry Kane and Heung-min Son, as well as new arrival Dejan Kulusevski, has them flying in the Premier League.

What might offer some reassurance is that, on the surface, these scoring rates would appear unsustainable.

These 12 goals have come from their last 15 shots on target. Seemingly every effort on goal turns into a goal. Meanwhile, Aston Villa had seven on target in the first half of their 4-0 defeat and failed to convert any of them. Spurs have even had the most own goals in their favour this season.

The caveat to this is that when you have two world class forwards as Conte does, these numbers can be sustainable. The best strikers around don’t need multiple efforts at goal to find the back of the net.

Son has 17 Premier League goals from 12.02 xG while Lacazette has four goals from 7.45 xG, and two of those were penalties. While there isn’t a great deal of encouragement from what is happening in the wrong side of north London, maybe, just maybe, the data will catch up on Spurs soon enough.

It’s just a shame that their fixtures won’t make it harder for them.

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2. Xhaka Into Midfield & Tomiyasu at Right-Back

Due to return to training after the Southampton match, the reintroduction of Takehiro Tomiyasu will be huge for Arsenal. Having been out for so long it means that he’ll need time to get back into the swing of match sharpness, but he’s proven before how quickly he can settle.

Bringing him back into the fold is not just to oust Cedric, it’s to inject some balance.

One hope from the Brighton defeat is that Arteta will have learned his lesson over fielding Granit Xhaka at left-back. He should have learned his lesson from last season already, but alas, it might have taken another horrendous performance and result for it to truly sink in.

If Nuno Tavares is to return to the team and abandon this foolish tactical reshuffle, he will benefit greatly from having a stabilising presence on the other side of the pitch. Nuno’s best performances this season came when Tomiyasu was in the side, adding solidity to the back which allowed him to make those marauding runs forward.

There is no knowing whether Arteta will head down this route. He absolutely should, with Xhaka joining Sambi in midfield and more of a 4-2-3-1 shape being utilised, and if he satisfies the calls of many fans it will get Arsenal closer to a more rounded unit.

Tomiyasu still needs to get battle his way back to fitness, however, yet the blueprint of a more cohesive team is on the horizon.

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3. Tottenham vs Arsenal

As much as it may seem like the top four is drifting away from Arsenal, should they win their game in hand then the points totals remain equal. Context is key but that is what the table will say. It doesn’t lie.

There are some extremely tough fixtures to come for Arteta’s side, those which appear even harder on account of the injuries and form, one of which happens to be away at Tottenham.

That fixture was deliberately left until the latter stages of the season to give it additional spice and, lo and behold, it has worked. The less confident Arsenal fans will say, however, that it might all be over by then anyway.

It still has the capacity to swing this top four race in either side’s favour. Who knows what results could be like prior to that stage.

Of course, history is not on Arsenal’s side here. They have not won away at Spurs in any stadium since 2015, and not in the Premier League since Rosicky’s rocket in 2014. This is one of England’s fiercest rivalries, one where home advantage has proven to be invaluable is so many of the recent seasons.

But the point remains that a potentially season-defining North London Derby remains on the calendar: a top four ‘six-pointer’, if you like.

It could still prove decisive.

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4. This is the Premier League

We can look at rolling xG charts, form and fixture lists and come up with predictions, but rarely ever does anything go as smoothly, or as badly, as initially thought.

Nobody could foresee Arsenal going on a run after the opening three matches that would have them in this position to begin with, just as few predicted Everton would go the opposite way and plunge themselves into a relegation battle.

Things can change quickly in this division. Tottenham went from beating Manchester City to losing away at Burnley. It’s unpredictable to the extreme, which can work in your favour or against you.

Nobody is kidding themselves here about the the scale of the challenge facing Arsenal. They will have to be near perfect across each of their remaining matches and Tottenham will have to drop points in unlikely circumstances. Even then the side must also find solutions to the injuries they’ve suffered and avoid accruing any more.

But one slip up here or there and suddenly the mood shifts. Spurs have just lost Matt Doherty for the season and have to play the dreadful Emerson Royal at right wing-back. Who knows how that could turn out? Who knows how any result could turn out?

Sometimes you’ll just have to cross your fingers. But you wouldn’t cross your fingers if there was no hope at all, right?