Arsenal: 3 outcomes for Eddie Nketiah’s future analysed

On the one hand the current season is going precisely how Arsenal wanted it to: they’re improved as a unit and are firmly in the hunt for a top four place.

Conversely, almost nothing has gone to plan. It’s a peculiar one.

Looking back at the recent victory over Manchester United, Arsenal sent a team out against their long-running rivals that contained Cedric Soares at right-back, Nuno Tavares at left-back, Mohamed Elneny in midfield, and Eddie Nketiah in attack. That wasn’t the plan.

Nor was losing the first three games of the season, nor was going through the Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang saga, nor was bringing nobody in during the winter window, and nor was suffering a dangerous bout of injuries.

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The 3 outcomes for Eddie Nketiah’s future at Arsenal after inspired form has helped the Gunners’ pursuit of a Premier League top four place

But football works in mysterious ways. As a club and coaching staff you have to overcome the uncertainties and unexpected outcomes and find ways to navigate around them. One of those has resulted in Nketiah leading the line for the club over the past four games.

Coming into the team when Alexandre Lacazette fell ill, Arsenal did not set out their plans for 2021/22 with them fighting for a Champions League place with their out-of-contract academy player starting at centre-forward. They will arguably be wishing they had done so sooner, mind you.

Nketiah has been terrific over the past two weeks. His performances against Southampton, Chelsea, Manchester United and West Ham have been a breath of surprisingly fresh air. Few, if any, saw him reaching the level he has, which makes his situation at Arsenal a topic of fierce debate.

Has he earned himself a new deal at the club? Should previously failed efforts to keep hold of him be ramped up a gear with the promise of regular football? Will he still leave? Etc, etc.

It’s an interesting scenario facing him and the club, with three possible outcomes.

1. Eddie Nketiah Leaves as a Free Agent

‘Free agent’. Two cursed words at this football club that have become far too frequently uttered when it comes to players on the books.

Letting players run down their deals was replaced with paying players to rip them up sooner, and with Nketiah there appears to another scenario where the Gunners will lose someone for nothing. Well, apart from a potential tribunal fee, but that could be pittance.

As it stands Nketiah will leave the club at the end of his contract. Having turned down multiple offers to stay, his representatives have been in regular dialogue with clubs across France and Germany, where there is strong interest in his signature.

There will also be options on the table closer to home. Crystal Palace have a long-standing interest with Odsonne Edouard failing to inspire as the £20m summer signing has completed 90 minutes just five times in the Premier League this season.

Over the past four games Nketiah has demonstrated his capacity to play at the top level. There needs to be more longevity, of course, but there are few sides in this division that won’t be eyeing the free transfer of a 22-year-old striker with Premier League experience who is the all-time top scorer for the England Under-21 side. If he does go, there are two slots in the Arsenal squad waiting to be filled.

What if he doesn’t, though?

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2. Eddie Nketiah Stays & Becomes Arsenal’s Starting Striker

The improvements that Nketiah has demonstrated across this season – including in the Carabao Cup where he’s shown a more rounded profile despite the quality of opposition – can’t be denied. He looks like a different player.

It wasn’t long ago he came on as a substitute against Aston Villa and showed an appalling lack of commitment. Thankfully that was a one-off, and his other cameos up until starting the last four matches have shown an engaged and determined character.

All of which doesn’t mention the quality, of which there has been plenty on show.

His movements to receive the ball, his tailored first touch, comfort dropping deep to overload the midfield and boundless energy to press the ball and run the channels have steadily improved game upon game. In the win over United he even showed improvement in the space of ten minutes, first snatching at a chance when he fired straight at De Gea and then in an almost identical situation shortly after he took his time, set himself, and fired into the bottom corner before VAR overruled the goal.

Nketiah is no finished article, though. Far from it. It’s also very easy to over index what he’s doing on account of having had nothing of the sort in the No. 9 position for most of the season. One run into the channel feels like a gift from the gods. But he has looked more ‘complete’ than he ever has, which comes at the tender age of 22 years old.

Arteta absolutely adores him, is desperate for him to stay, and knows giving him the keys to centre-forward position will convince him to do so. Does he see him as the No. 9? That’s a different story.

Put it this way, if Arsenal secure Champions League football and inevitably draw Bayern Munich in the group stages, who would be content with Nketiah leading the line?

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3. Eddie Nketiah Stays & Becomes Second Choice Striker

Such has been the incredible improvement he’s shown that this idea is one most are beginning to warm to. Not only does he suit the homegrown quota (even if this is mostly fine now), know the club inside out, have youth on his side and the room to develop, he won’t cost a transfer fee either.

It’s well documented that Arsenal are aiming to bring in at least one forward this summer, with one more versatile option to go along with the top drawer centre-forward that can transform this team entirely. Look how much better it has looked with Nketiah in there. Imagine a really established talent instead. Stuff of dreams.

So if they can reduce the striker incomings to just one by convincing Nketiah to sign a new contract it allows the resources to be distributed elsewhere, where there is the need to add as much quality in depth as possible.

Should the likes of Xhaka, Pepe or Saliba leave then more will be needed, and even if it’s only Pepe who goes Arsenal still need more numbers in midfield.

Nketiah has stepped up in Arsenal’s time of need. He’s not doing anything revolutionary but he’s providing exactly that which this team needs right now. Above all, he’s proven his worth.

However, that’s come with him getting regular starts. If he reverts to being second choice again it will mean more bit-part moments that won’t benefit his development and, crucially, won’t satisfy him. While it would suit Arsenal well to have an improving striker – who may explode one day – they don’t need to pay a transfer fee for and who can play the occasional game, it’s very clear that won’t suffice for Nketiah.

He wants to be the man somewhere. He will not get that at Arsenal.