Declan Rice or Moises Caicedo: Who should Arsenal sign this summer?

A huge summer beckons at Arsenal Football Club.

The club has moved forward at an exponential rate in 2022/23, and they could yet end up as the Premier League champions should Manchester City slip up in a couple of their remaining four games. Nevertheless, Mikel Arteta has his sights set on a remarkable 90-point haul just 12 months after the Gunners missed out on the top four to their bitter rivals Tottenham.

Oh, how times have so quickly changed!

Arsenal’s conclusion to the season will not determine their summer transfer plans, with the club set to embark on a busy period at the end of the 2022/23 season no matter where they finish. Their midfield is in further need of bolstering at both the #6 and #8 positions, and several priority targets have manifested.

The Gunners could begin 2023/24 with both Declan Rice and Moises Caicedo on their books, but it’s likely that just one (if any) arrives at the Emirates this summer. So, if Arsenal had to prioritise a move for either Rice or Caicedo, who should they choose?

Declan Rice or Moises Caicedo: Who should Arsenal sign this summer?

Passing & build-up

Both players would be competent operating as a #6 or #8 within Arteta’s framework, and each role comes with plenty of responsibility in possession, especially the former.

The holding midfielder is joined by Oleksandr Zinchenko to create a midfield pivot which helps Arsenal overwhelm opponents in central areas. The Gunners are all about control. Thus, it’s imperative to be technically secure, adept under pressure, positionally astute, and capable of breaking lines when necessary as the #6 in Arteta’s system.

Caicedo is currently playing a meticulous possession structure under Roberto De Zerbi which often resembles a 4-2-4. The Ecuadorian international typically operates in the midfield two alongside Alexis Mac Allister and plays an important role in Brighton’s build-up. At the time of writing, Caicedo ranks in the top 16% of all midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues over the past year in terms of passes completed per 90 minutes (55.03). His pass completion is an impressive 88.2%, but he’s not the primary ball progressor in De Zerbi’s side, as he sits in the top 30% of all midfielders for progressive passes.

However, Caicedo is competent when asked upon to progress play, and he’s certainly aided by an impressive ball-carrying ability. Although, Rice also stands out in this regard. He’s so hard to stop in full cry.

The West Ham midfielder has primarily played in a transition-based unit that, this season, boasts the third-lowest average possession share in the Premier League. Caicedo’s Brighton, on the contrary, average the second-highest behind only Man City. Thus, Rice isn’t given as much of a chance to impress with the ball, which is why his numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Caicedo’s.

Nevertheless, he still tanks in the top 22% of midfielders when it comes to passes completed per 90 minutes, while his pass completion of 86.6% is more than respectable considering the onus he takes on in West Ham’s build-up. Rice has a ton of responsibility, and, like Caicedo, he can play line-splitting passes when needed.

The Englishman’s perhaps a little more cautious with the ball than the Ecuadorian, and he’s previously been criticised for hiding somewhat in the build-up, but that’s been eradicated from his game. His efficacy in transition shouldn’t be scoffed at either.

Overall, I think Rice would probably be better suited to performing the #6 role in possession at Arsenal, whereas Caicedo would be better off as an #8.

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Defending & out of possession

Both are regarded as immense defenders. Arsenal recently discovered first-hand just how effective Rice is without the ball when he snuck up on Thomas Partey, dispossessed the Ghanaian, and kick-started the sequence which led to a Hammers penalty.

Rice is a menace when given the freedom to press high, although his aggression and eagerness can sometimes get him into trouble positionally. Nevertheless, the England international is a tremendous athlete who covers ground at will.

He’s certainly a more measured defender than Caicedo (he’s committed, on average, 1.25 fewer fouls in the Premier League this season), and his 1.92 interceptions rank in the top 3% of all midfielders over the past year. Rice has tackled 61.1% of dribbers faced this term, depicting his strength in one-vs-one situations, while he’s also adept in the air. The West Ham skipper has won 60% of his aerial duels this season.

As for the similarly aggressive Caicedo, he’s a counter-pressing machine and Arteta would undoubtedly appreciate his ability to win back possession in the opposition’s third to ensure his side sustains pressure. The Ecuadorian plays a pivotal role in facilitating counter-attacks on the south coast as a result of his stellar tackling ability. His 3.09 tackles per 90 minutes rank in the top 9% of midfielders, while, like Rice, he’s tackled over 60% of the dribbles he’s faced.

The two excel in different areas without the ball, and it’s mightily tough to separate them. Rice’s reading of the game and timing, or Caicedo’s tackling and counter-pressing?

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Versatility

There’s no doubt that Caicedo has already shown in his young career a capacity to perform various functions to a high standard. The midfielder operated at the base of a 4-3-3 at his old club, Independiente del Valle, as well as on the right side of a midfield three.

Under De Zerbi, though, Caicedo has functioned as a midfield shuttler in a pivot with Mac Allister. While he’s the more defensively-minded of the two, he often advances from his position in the left half-space and combines with teammates in the final third. He’s comfortable wherever he operates on the pitch.

Rice, meanwhile, has been limited to performing within a double pivot at West Ham, usually alongside Tomas Soucek, although the more creative Lucas Paqueta has occasionally partnered the England star in recent times. Overall, Rice, unlike Caicedo, hasn’t really got the chance to show off his ability to perform multiple roles, and I believe he could excel as an #8 in Arteta’s system.

Nevertheless, Caicedo has to be regarded as the more versatile of the two.

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Price

If Arsenal are to snag either player this summer, they won’t come cheap.

West Ham are more likely to part ways with their star midfielder given his contract situation, but the latest reports suggest the Hammers want in excess of £120m for their skipper. This valuation would be reasonable if Rice didn’t have a year left on his deal.

A fairer price given the context would be in the region of £75m/£80m, but would West Ham be willing to go that low?

As for Caicedo, it’s understood that Brighton rejected a £70m proposal from Arsenal in January and the player’s new contract, combined with his excellent season, has only inflated his value. The Seagulls will likely allow the player to leave this summer if their valuation is met, but it’s not yet clear what that asking price is.

It’ll likely be in the region of £80m and, right now, Caicedo is currently looking like the cheaper of the two.

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Conclusion

The dream scenario is that Arsenal end up with both, but given West Ham and Brighton’s respective asking prices, it’s hard to envisage the club splurging over £160m to sign Rice and Caicedo this summer when they have needs at centre-back and out wide.

If only one could be signed, I think I’d agree with those that voted on our poll. While only 432 voted, 72.5% would prefer to sign Rice. The Englishman’s leadership and experience at the very highest level, combined with his remarkable consistency, render him one of the most sure bet midfielders in Europe. While he may end up costing a little more, I think less can go wrong.

For me, for all his brilliance and I certainly wouldn’t scoff at his signing, there’s still a rawness to Caicedo’s game that needs to be ironed out. He’s well on his way to becoming one of Europe’s premier midfielders, but his arrival would come with slightly greater risk.