Arsenal: 4 reasons why losing out on top four would be majorly disappointing

Thierry Henry has sparked some interesting discourse across the Arsenal world in recent days. The greatest player ever to play for the club, and the greatest player who will ever play for the club, isn’t one to mince his words.

The all-time top scorer has changed his stance considerably in the time between the 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace and the recent win over Wolves. When asked whether he thought Arsenal could secure European football he replied ‘not with what I saw recently’, which was at the time entirely fair.

But it’s what he’s said in the build-up to Saturday’s game with Brentford which has caused the biggest stir.

It’s important to remember that Henry is a fan. He bleeds Arsenal, and only wants what is best for Arsenal. Granted, he’s part of a movement that doesn’t look to favourably on the club at present as he bids to raise Daniel Ek’s profile, but he still loves the club. Hence why his comments aren’t overly surprising.

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Arsenal: 4 reasons why not finishing in the Premier League top four would be disappointing after Thierry Henry said it would be a failure if they didn’t

"“The best thing about Arsenal is that they didn’t play,” the Frenchman said on CBS Sports. “West Ham didn’t take advantage of it. Tottenham has never taken advantage of it. “But Arsenal had to go and win at Wolves. That was a massive win, so there are still a lot of games to go. For me, if they don’t do it, as I said at the start of the season, then it will be a failure.”"

It’s that word, failure.

After finishing eighth in back-to-back campaigns and signing a group of young players who weren’t expected to move the needle far enough for Arsenal this season to secure top four, would it now be a failure to miss out from it? Before the season began nobody gave the Gunners a rat’s chance in hell of finishing anywhere near those positions.

With 16 games left to play, is Henry right? Well, he is, and he isn’t. Finishing outside of the top four wouldn’t constitute some abject failure, but it would be unmistakably disappointing. That seems like a apt description. Here’s why.

1. Expectations Have Changed This Season

This is where most of the outrage lies, in that expectations set before the season finished aren’t allowed to bend in accordance with fluctuating circumstances.

As far as setting targets and expectations goes, the fairest time to do is at the beginning of the season. Here there is no influence on events that take place regarding or not regarding Arsenal, and you can take stock of the situation at face value.

But of course these expectations can be altered. Not since Unai Emery and his team’s outstanding bottle job in 2019/20 have Arsenal been this close to elite European football, and that’s still with a wealth of matches left to play.

Realistically, as much as everyone wanted to finish in the top four, off the back of the stinking mediocrity that fans had been subject to for the previous two seasons, a Europa League place was a more achievable target.

It is not acceptable for this club, as five seasons out of the Champions League is horrendous, but was realistic in regards to Arsenal’s current plight.

That is not the case any more. This is how the table looks with 16 games left to play, and it’s leaning in Arsenal’s favour. Absolutely the target is now top four, and without doubt the adjusted aims now mean not securing it would breed disappointment.

Failure, however, is a strong word.

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2. Arsenal’s Rivals Are Highly Flawed

When Leicester won the league in 2015/16 it was the perfect storm. Claudio Ranieiri unearthed a system that suited to his squad at a time when the rest of the division all floundered. The Top Six were awful that season, whereas Leicester were magnificent.

Arsenal are clearly not challenging for a title – they should have that season – but they do boast a similar chance to take advantage of a season in which their top four rivals all have their flaws.

Manchester United are a squad in disarray. A panoply of individual talent nonfunctional as a group. Tottenham have a manager openly admitting his side are weaker after the January transfer window, coupled with an atrocious defence. West Ham have a squad even thinner than Arsenal and their focus will shift to a historic Europa League campaign. Wolves, meanwhile, don’t score goals.

There is an opening there. A clear one.

Next summer Antonio Conte will get the money to spend, while West Ham will finally bolster their own ranks. Equally, Manchester United may well land Mauricio Pochettino or Erik ten Hag and perhaps finally have some clarity about their direction.

In other words, it isn’t known how much stronger everyone else will become in the off-season, so the best course of action is to assume that there will be improvements. Hence why coming up short now, while the iron is hot, would be hugely disappointing.

This is Arsenal’s chance to sneak out in front.

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3. Arsenal’s Squad is Perfectly Set Up for Champions League Spending

The work undertaken over the January transfer window raised eyebrows. Many of those eyebrows are still closer to scalps than they are to eyes, and many more will rise again if the decision not to invest comes back to haunt Arsenal in the league.

Allowing six players to leave without any coming in, the absence of a striker available who the club were willing to secure meant no centre-forward was brought in, which was is the riskiest of all.

But if this plan works and Arsenal do get into the Champions League places, then the squad is perfectly set up for it.

The wage bill has been trimmed immensely across recent windows, with Arteta also reducing his group of players down to 20 senior options. That streamlined squad is only going to decrease in size as well, with three players seeing their deals expire at the end of the season.

There will be further investment in the squad over the summer, and those spaces can be filled with Champions League quality footballers. The calibre of player finishing in the top four attracts will be transformative to this project, and the spaces both in the squad and in the wage bill are there to be taken.

Add to that further departures expected for various fees – Leno, Pepe, Bellerin, Torreira, Runarsson, Maitland-Niles, Mari, Nelson, Mavropanos, Guendouzi – and you’ve got a squad in the ideal condition to be added to with an elite level of player. These gaps are there for Champions League players, not Europa League players. It’s so inviting.

Arsenal are wonderfully set up for the summer if they do get into the top four.

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4. Arsenal Have No Excuses – No Europe to Contend With

Not being in Europe this season was viewed as a blessing in disguise. It is devastating for a club of Arsenal’s size that they are out of continental competitions for the first time in 25 years, but for the sake of the rebuild and resetting the course, this was actually welcomed.

Originally, having no midweek ventures off to eastern reaches of the continent ensured that Arteta would have no excuses to get his side into the top six with the additional time presented to him on the training ground to work on every aspect of the team.

That is now the Champions League. Not the Europa League.

Of those chasing a place in the top four – United, Spurs, West Ham and Wolves – only Wolves have no other competitions ahead of them other than the Premier League. That’s the boat Arsenal are in and they have to capitalise on their own failings last season as well as this season.

It’s one game per week. That’s it. While this team is still young and still learning to play as a group, the circumstances in the division and where they find themselves mean there is enough there to put in the right level of performance every week.

The team and coaching staff deserve immense credit for getting Arsenal into this conversation, but the work is far from over. It’s now firmly in their hands to bring Champions League football back to the carpet. Not managing to do so won’t be a failure as such, but it would doubtlessly be massively disappointing.

So it’s simple: don’t disappoint.