Arsenal: 4 areas of concern in the race for top four

Arsenal are in a fantastic position. In a top four race that was blanketed as who’d be the best of a bad bunch, that narrative has been dispelled by the superb consistency of Mikel Arteta’s team.

Beating Watford last time out took Arsenal into a position they hadn’t held for two months, although this time the context of their standing in the table makes for much finer viewing.

Boasting a one point advantage over Manchester United with three fewer matches played has the Gunners in a glorious position, one which would have been passed off as a wind-up if mooted just a few months ago.

It’s really on. There are 13 matches left to play in the Premier League and, in regards to Tottenham, Arsenal need only to match their results with an additional six-point cushion in their favour to seal the deal.

Arsenal: 4 areas of concern in the race for top four finish with the Gunners far from certain amid Spurs & Manchester United pursuit

Watching the quality of football on show and getting swept up in the magnificence of the young players in this squad, it’s hard not to get carried away. It’s hard not to believe. Ask yourself whether you want to see more of this and the answer is yes, without a second’s pause.

But it’s also not home and dry. Far from it. If anything it’s just jumped in the pool 1,000 miles away from London in southern Spain. Caution is advised.

Just as there are reasons to get excited for the sweet sound of Champions League music back on the carpet, there are reasons to keep feet on the ground.

13 games is a third of the season to go. Seeing Arsenal’s turnaround from the first third onwards should be a telling example that everything can change very quickly in this division. Despite Arsenal topping the probability scales to finish fourth, there are four reasons to remain vigilant.

1. Arsenal Are 1 or 2 Injuries Away From a Serious Issue

As was the case when the January transfer window closed, a scenario that has yet to truly test Arsenal, the size of the squad and lack of winter arrivals leaves no room for error in the injury department.

Is disaster a strong word? Take Alexandre Lacazette out of this team and it’s not far off it.

Very clear is not only that Gabriel Martinelli isn’t quite ready for the centre-forward position, but that he doesn’t have the tools to perform it in the role that Lacazette does. Nor does Eddie Nketiah.

Irrespective of his deficiencies, the Frenchman is making Arsenal tick. He has nine goal involvements in his last ten games. Remove him from the equation and this team, who are invested into this system and in tune with this striker, won’t operate as smoothly.

He’s not the only one, though, with Martin Odegaard on another planet at the minute and Benjamin White integral to how Arsenal build their play and organise their defence. Bukayo Saka would be a gigantic loss, of course, as no matter how sharp Nicolas Pepe is looking there is no replacement for the 20-year-old. How about Granit Xhaka? His return to the team has coincided with the fine form of late. It’s no coincidence.

Some positions can be managed slightly better than others, but all it takes is one hamstring to go and suddenly the situation isn’t quite as rosy.

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2. This Young  Arsenal Team Will be Inconsistent

More than any of their current top four rivals at present, Arsenal have found consistency in the league. Dropping just five points from the previous 30 available – with the only defeat coming against the champions – the level they’ve found has been key to them overtaking Wolves, West Ham, United and Spurs when they’ve faltered.

It would still be wise to prepare for the inevitable stumble. It won’t be a clean sweep.

Almost all of the back five had average games against Watford. Nobody covered themselves in glory and there were structural issued coupled with moments of individual sloppiness. Fortunately the attacking football was excellent so that wasn’t punished, as well as the Hornets being a majorly dreadful side.

Saka was mesmeric against Watford but he has off days too. Martinelli scored a fabulous goal in that game too but his last two displays overall haven’t been at the standard he set earlier in the winter.

A bit like the 0-0 draw with Brighton at the AMEX where everyone underperformed, given the age of this squad, and even the inconsistencies of some of the senior players, a collective poor game is due at some stage.

It may never come, so who knows? Yet it’s worth remembering how new of an environment this is for so many, including someone like Aaron Ramsdale who has gone from three relegations in four seasons to competing for a Champions League and England number one place.

Games where it’s not quite coming off, be it individually or collectively, are expected.

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3. Arsenal Still Have to Play Spurs, United, West Ham, Chelsea & Liverpool

Arsenal getting into the top four with games, points, or both in hand on their respective rivals is even more important considering the fixtures they still have to come.

• Liverpool (H)
• Manchester United (H)
• West Ham (A)
• Chelsea (A)
• Tottenham (A)

That’s daunting, and it doesn’t include other potential banana skins with away trips to Southampton and Aston Villa also up on the fixture list. To say Arsenal have a tough run-in would be putting it mildly.

Arsenal’s form should offer real encouragement that they can maintain a push for the Champions League, yet their run-in does not favour them over other sides.

Speaking as is right now, you’d back Arsenal to beat United and West Ham. From there onwards, Liverpool will be almighty tough, and the Gunners’ record away at both Chelsea and Tottenham rover recent years doesn’t make for pleasant reading.

What this does highlight is how important beating the likes of Watford and Burnley is. There can be no slip-ups in the few remaining matches against bottom half sides on account of the fixtures to come.

It really is 13 cup finals.

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4. Tottenham

The main obstacle standing in Arsenal’s way is Arsenal. Followed shortly by Tottenham.

Of all the teams still in the race for a top four place, Spurs are the Gunners’ biggest challengers. They may be three points behind having played one more game, but their Premier League run-in is the easiest on paper and they also head into this final stretch with Harry Kane in frustratingly fine form.

• Manchester United (A)
• Brighton (A)
• West Ham (H)
• Newcastle (H)
• Aston Villa (A)
• Brighton (H)
• Brentford (A)
• Leicester (H)
• Liverpool (A)
• Burnley (H)
• Norwich (A)

Of those matches only three are against sides in the top half of the table. They are not out of it no matter how hideously inconsistent they are. But even if Everton should apologise for their atrocious performance on Monday, Spurs still scored five past them to make it nine scored in the past two games.

They have a world class striker finding form, one of the finest managers in Antonio Conte, and Emerson Royal is no longer playing for them.

Are they flawed? Heavily. Their defensive shape and covering is woeful, they’d find it hard to deal with Arsenal’s third man runners, and they don’t boast Champions League quality in a number of areas. Looking at the table at who will be running Arsenal close, however, and it’s undoubtedly them just up the road.

Can one be too worried, and not using history as a lesson? Perhaps. But getting too far ahead at this stage is a recipe for severe disappointment should the unthinkable happen.

Tottenham won’t be a concern if Arsenal take care of their own matters, yet if asked who is closest to pipping the Gunners, it would be them.