Santi Cazorla Shines Beneath the Surface for Arsenal

Every year there are teams who under achieve their projections and those which over achieve. As fans, we frequently rely on one number – total points – and how it translates to position in the table. But that number rarely tells the whole story and truly does not matter until the final whistle is blown in May. At any point in the season, there are bushels of better numbers to examine to best assess the present and future value of a team and it’s collective parts. Perhaps no team in the Premier League has better underlying (or ‘advanced’) statistical evidence that they have out-performed their record than Arsenal. And no player on Arsenal is having worse luck than Santi Cazorla.

As Michael Caley of the the Washington Post wrote recently, Arsenal is not mired in the crises their supporters believe. While the Gunners do sit well below expectation in terms of points (17 from 11 matches), Arsene Wenger’s side have played significantly better than their record indicates. Caley’s article clearly shows that the Gunners are generating scoring opportunities at a better rate than any other club in the Prem, once properly weighted.  I believe that Santi Cazorla, in particular, has had a markedly better season by the numbers than is the public perception.

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Cazorla has drawn criticism from pundits and supporters alike, but the underlying numbers suggests that Santi – much like Arsenal – is merely getting unlucky. After looking at the numbers, I would posit three arguments in defense of Santi Cazorla.

1. You cannot slate Cazorla for misplaying balls and laud Alexis Sanchez for his use of the ball;

2. If you love the way that Mikel Arteta has controlled the passing game, you should love the same for Cazorla, and;

3. You cannot make the “he was better last season” argument; this season he is getting phenomenally unlucky.

First point first, and we delve into a pairing of quality passing stats straight from Opta, by way of Football365:

"Alexis Sanchez has played more inaccurate short passes (103) than any other player in the PL this season; Santi Cazorla has played more inaccurate corners (31) than any other player in the PL this season."

That’s staggering to think about on both ends. Alexis has played 781′ to Santi’s 747′. In that time the Chilean has averaged one misplayed short pass every 7′, more than 12 per 90′. While it is true that Cazorla has more inaccurate corners, it is also true that he has taken a massive 42 this season (Alexis with 15 is second-most on AFC). And, while Alexis has successfully completed 31 dribbles to Santi’s 20, he has taken significantly more runs. The successful dribble ratio favors the Spaniard here as he completes 59% of attempts, while Alexis completes 53%. Not surprisingly, Santi has been dispossessed just 10 times this season – Alexis 22 times. Simply put, Santi has not been careless with the ball (and certainly not more careless than Alexis).

2. Moreover, Santi has been very accurate with his passes, completing 88.9% of his passes. That is a personal best League success rate dating back to his playing days with Villareal and nearly 4% better than his career mark in all competitions. It is quite in fashion to praise Mikel Arteta for his remarkable 94.7% pass completion, which is top in the Premier League. The Gunners as a whole are well below Arteta’s mark at 86.2% of passes completed, which is also below Santi’s mark. Cazorla’s 88.9% completion rate is better than Ozil (87%), Ramsey (86%), Wilshere (83%) and Alexis (77%). A large part of Arsenal’s success is predicated on holding possession and making a high number of successful passes, only Arteta does this better, further up the field, than Santi Cazorla.

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3. Finally, I posit that Cazorla is getting unlucky. Until the ball finds the back of the net, it is easy to downplay good ball possession by dismissing it as ‘defensive’ or ‘backwards’ instead of ‘attacking’. Without a goal and with only a single assist, Cazorla has borne a bit of unfair criticism for not being involved in enough of the goals. However, there is nothing in the numbers to suggest that he hasn’t done his level best to be involved, just that his teammates have squandered the opportunities he’s passed them on a plate.

One stat I chart in my fantasy premier league work is chances created. As I wrote in my fantasy EPL Stats column:

"The Spaniard has created 25 chances and been rewarded with a single assist – that is the most chances for the fewest assists of anyone in Arsene Wenger’s squad and near the top of the list in the BPL.  While Alexis Sánchez has created more chances (28) he has also had two assists to date."

Chances created are useful for predicting future success – much more so than relying on past assists. For his career, Santi has fluctuated a bit in terms of assists, but always been very consistent in the number of chances he has created. The midfielder had an assist every 326′ (or roughly one per four matches) last season. This season it’s been 747′ with one assist despite the fact that he is creating chances for his teammates at nearly an identical pace to last term. Cazorla’s player card at WhoScored shows 2.1 key passes per match this season, narrowly behind his 2.2 in 2013/14. In fact, his mark of 2.1 to date this season is a half a point higher than his career average per game in all competitions. And notably, 12 of his chances have directly led to shots on target – with only one being scored. That 12:1 ratio (shots on target to goals) will eventually regress towards the mean and Santi will shortly see a dramatic rise in the number of helpers on his ledger. There is no reason to think he will not best last season’s total of 8 assists.

*All Stats Courtesy Opta Sports via WhoScored.com, F365, and PlayTogga.