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Is Olivier Giroud Capable of Winning the Golden Boot this Year?

By Josh Sippie

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Olivier Giroud netted two more goals against Newcastle United to put his tally at an impressive 13 goals in just 14 Premier League appearances. That puts him tied with team mate Alexis Sanchez for fifth in the Premier League in goals scored. He’s two behind QPR’s Charlies Austin, four behind Sergio Aguero, five behind Diego Costa and six behind Harry Kane.

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But given the rate at which he’s scoring goals, a rate that is just behind that of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, does the Frenchman have a chance at what would be one of the most impressive Golden Boots in recent memory?

Let’s have a little fun with projections. While I despise projections and acknowledge that they count for nothing, it’s still interesting to flesh out the stats and see if, mathematically speaking, Giroud could overtake his opposition with almost half a season’s worth of playing time. Here’s a look, while keeping in mind that these projections assume that each player will play the full 90 minutes of each of their remaining EPL match-ups (stats via WhoScored.com):

[table id=28 /]

So the math doesn’t favor Olivier Giroud, but just like me, you don’t buy into projections either, do you? Giroud has scored nine goals in his last nine games and four in his last three. It’s a torrid pace and a near impossible one to keep up, but with only eight Premier League matches remaining, is it possible that he can average over a goal a game? Compare Giroud’s recent form to that of Harry Kane, who hasn’t scored in five of his last eight matches, or Diego Costa. who’s only scored two goals in his last eight appearances. With Kane’s burst-scoring and Costa’s fading pace, Giroud stands a chance beyond what the math leads us to think.

If we project the recent form of Costa, having only tallied two goals in his last eight matches, then he would only score another two or three goals by seasons end, placing him right at or below Giroud’s projected 21.

It’s impossible to project Kane, because he either scores two, three or zero, but that can come back to bite him in the long run, or it could serve him well, we’ll just have to wait and see. Either way, Giroud has a chance, as his consistency is what makes his goal scoring pace so realistic.

It really makes you wonder what the Frenchman could have done with a full season. As you can tell from the table, Giroud has six less appearances than the the next lowest, Harry Kane’s 20. So, just because we can, let’s see if Giroud can win a hypothetical Golden Boot with an assumed six added appearances with the same goal scoring rate.

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If Olivier Giroud could have scored goals at the same rate (that was deemed impossible to sustain just weeks ago and that he has sustained superbly) with as many appearances as Harry Kane, he would be projected for 26 goals, the exact same as Kane’s projection. With enough appearances to match Diego Costa, the Frenchman would have notched 28 and been this years Golden Boot winner.

This is all blind speculation, but the point is, Olivier Giroud is a Golden Boot quality striker. He’s not a one-trick wardrobe that the media has been painting him to be, they’re just too ashamed to admit they were wrong. Giroud is a world class striker, statistically the best aerial threat in the league, as he’s scored more headed goals since his arrival in the Premier League than anyone else, and his flick-passing game is second to none (an aspect of his game that no one gives him credit for).

Arsenal can go forth into next year confidently behind their front man, because he can take this team to the top of the league. Although no doubt there will still be those clamoring for Edinson Cavani.

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