Arsenal More Dependent On Olivier Giroud Than They Were On Robin van Persie

Arsenal were once almost completely dependent on Robin van Persie. That feeling of dependency may again be replicated with Olivier Giroud. How did this happen?

If you have been reading anything from Pain in the Arsenal lately, there is a 75% chance you have heard something along the lines of “Olivier Giroud cannot do this alone” or “why didn’t Arsenal sign a striker?” It’s like a broken record. However, the point of this article is to draw attention to just how dependent on Giroud Arsenal is, mainly through statistics.

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What makes Arsenal so special is that they do not depend on one person. They have a fluid team that can put weight on different members of the team, from Ozil to Alexis to Ramsey.

It was not always like that though. Before Giroud there was Robin van Persie, who accounted for so many of Arsenal’s goals. It was pretty clear that if van Persie was not in tune, neither was Arsenal.

It is starting to look like Giroud may be in the same boat. The problem there is that Giroud is not the same kind of striker as van Persie. The Dutchman was a clinical finisher that was deadly from all over the pitch. Giroud is more versatile than he is given credit for, but he is not going to be running rings around anyone.

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That’s why the stats compiled are rather alarming. In looking at Giroud’s statistics this year (via WhoScored.com, goals included in all club competitions), one thing is clear. When Giroud is an active member of the offense, Arsenal fares superbly. When he fades away, not so much.

Consider this: When Olivier Giroud contributes a goal or an assist to Arsenal’s cause, the Gunners are 14-1-2 with 40 goals scored. That’s impressive. Those are some elite numbers that show just how important Giroud is. But a team like Arsenal should be just as effective when Giroud is not on his game. They are, after all, one of the most renowned clubs in the world of football.

Unfortunately, that is not the case. When Giroud does not score or assist, the Gunners are 5-6-4 with a mere 11 goals scored.

Let’s look at it from the angle of percentages. When Giroud contributes to goals, Arsenal have a win percentage of 82% and a goals per game clip of 2.35. When Giroud does not contribute, Arsenal’s win percentage drops to 33% with a goals per game clip of just .73.

Dependent much?

For all the criticism laid on Giroud, it is pretty clear that Arsenal are getting dangerously close to living and dying by the Frenchman. Of course, he is our No. 1 striker, so it is no massive surprise that he plays a big part in the team’s success. But the drop off is astounding. It further illustrated how much this team needs a viable second option.

To provide a bit of a comparison, let’s look at Manchester City when Sergio Aguero does and does not contribute a goal or an assist. The Citizens are 8-1-3 with 29 goals when he contributes and 4-2-2 with 13 goals when he doesn’t. That means they have a 67% chance to win when he contributes compared to a 50% when he does not. Only 17% of separation compared to Giroud’s massive 49%.

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In terms of goals, City score 2.42 goals when Aguero contributes and 1.6 when he does not. Again, a drop off? Sure. It’s Sergio Aguero, he is one of the best strikers in the world. But just 0.82 goals a game. That’s half the drop off of Giroud’s (1.62). Plus, take into account the game where City scored six and Aguero scored five of them. That helps the average a bit.

A very large portion of this comes down to Manchester City having other options up front. City is undefeated when Wilfried Bony contributes to goals.

Now, the moment of truth. How do the numbers compare to Robin van Persie’s 2011/12 season? Well, when the Flying Dutchman scored, Arsenal was 22-3-3 for a 79% win percentage. When he didn’t, they went 8-6-9 for a 35% win percentage. That is a 44% separation, which is less than Giroud’s 49%.

When it comes to goals, Arsenal scored 61 goals when RVP scored, making their goals per game clip an impressive 2.2. When he didn’t score, they only grabbed 22 goals for .96 goals per game. There you have it, based on these numbers alone, Arsenal is more dependent on Giroud than they were on RVP.

The point is, Arsenal will continue to wreak of inconsistency so long as they only have one real striker. It is just like it was with Robin van Persie. Arsenal had plenty of times with van Persie at the helm where they made title runs but they were never consistent enough to see it through.

That is because van Persie was competing with Nicklas Bendtner and Marouane Chamakh.

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Likewise, under Giroud, Arsenal have made many title runs as well, but they have not been consistent enough to see it through. Giroud needs competition because no one is consistent enough to play every game brilliantly.