Arsenal Champions League Draw: How Bayern Munich Can Be Beaten

Arsenal were, of course, drawn against Bayern Munich once again in the Champions League knockout stages. Here’s how they can beat the German giants.

Yes, it happened. Of course, it happened. Arsenal, in the one year that they miraculously manage top the group thanks to a wonderful Ludogorets draw away at Paris Saint-Germain, have been drawn against Bayern Munich, the team that have repeatedly ended their Champions League hopes at this stage in the competition.

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The jokes have been piling in, there is an inevitable sadness hanging over the Emirates and now the Gunners are heavy underdogs for an incredibly tough tie. However, this is a different side under Arsene Wenger this season and Bayern Munich are struggling, at least in respect to the utter dominance that they have enjoyed in recent history.

There is a chance that Arsenal can win this tie. It will be extremely difficult and they must execute a few key aspects of the game to great effect, but there is a chance. This is how they can do it.

Since the start of November, Bayern Munich have scored in every game, kept three clean sheets and failed to only win two. That may seem like an impenetrable team to have success against but there is one major weakness that Arsenal can exploit and one task that they must complete to great ability.

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First, let’s start with the weakness. In the summer, Bayern invested in yet another Borussia Dortmund star. Bringing in Mats Hummels and pairing him with Jerome Boateng, a player who has blossomed into the complete defender over the past few seasons, seemed unfair. However, the initial hopes of boasting an elite defensive unit with the attacking talents of Thomas Muller, Robert Lewandowski and the like have not yet been realised, primarily because of the two aforementioned centre-halves.

Neither have lived up to their billing, a billing that was merited with their consistently shining performances throughout their career, and they have made collective and individual errors, especially in recent games.

Specifically, Boateng struggled greatly in Bayern’s shock 3-2 loss to Rostov that all but resigned them to second position in the group. For Rostov’s first goal, Bayern poorly lost the ball, giving it straight to Dimitry Poloz. In a two-on-two situation, both Boateng and Badtsuber, his partner for the day, closed down Poloz with poor communication leaving them vulnerable with space in wider areas.

With eventual goalscorer Sardar Azmoun out-flanking Boateng to the left-hand side, the German centre-half closed the ball, leaving his man free. Then, when Azmoun is played in behind, he is beaten far too easily as the Rostov forward cuts inside, leaving him floundering on his backside, before watching Azmoun slot past Manuel Neuer.

Then, shortly after the half, with Poloz free down the Rostov right flank, a low cross is played across the box which is a simple clearance for Boateng to make. He gets his feet mixed up, scuffs his clearance straight into the path of the onrushing Christian Noboa before clumsily bundling into him, bringing him down and giving away the penalty.

With the pace that Arsenal boast in attacking areas, spearheaded by the likes of Theo Walcott and Alexis Sanchez, there will be opportunities to hit what has been a vulnerable centre-back pairing, with or without Hummels. The Gunners will look to exploit the space on the break and can have great success, even if they have to surrender much of the ball over the two legs.

Speaking of surrendering the ball, this brings me nicely to the one task that Arsenal must undertake perfectly.

Of the two games since November that Bayern have failed to win since the start of November, there is one underlying stat that details the defensive success of both teams. The first match was the aforementioned loss to Rostov in the Champions League. The second was a 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim, at home, early in November in the Bundesliga.

In both games, as they so often do, Bayern dominated the ball. Against Hoffenheim, they enjoyed 59% possession, while Rostov could only muster 30% against the German pass-masters. However, what was key for both teams was the number of interceptions, blocks and clearances they both made. Hoffenheim were able to rack up 23 interceptions, 35 clearances and 13 blocks. Rostov, meanwhile, recorded 31 interceptions, 35 clearances and 13 blocks. That is incredible.

In the past, Wenger has tried to match the technical proficiency of the likes of Barcelona and Bayern Munich. He has looked to attack their defensive weaknesses and simply out-score the opposition. Part of that decision has been forced by the defensive issues that Arsenal themselves have suffered. That is no longer the case.

This year, the Gunners have established a formidable, central defensive trio. Shkodran Mustafi and Laurent Koscielny make a resolute and disciplined pairing at the heart of the Arsenal defence, while Francis Coquelin, who sits just in front of the back four, boasts the athleticism to cover vast amounts of ground, shielding the defence and breaking up play on a consistent basis.

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Against Bayern, these three will have to replicate the defensive numbers that Rostov and Hoffenheim were able to generate. If they cannot, then it could be a long 180 minutes for Arsenal and Arsene Wenger. Bayern are the favourites, and they certainly should be, but this not the same, dominant side of recent seasons. While form may change between here and February, there are signs of hopes in what is seemingly yet another hopeless draw.