Arsenal Vs Manchester City: Unfortunately, Granit Xhaka the determining factor

Arsenal travel to Manchester City on Sunday, hoping to stem the best team in the country. Unfortunately, though, Granit Xhaka will be the determining factor.

Arsenal, in the Premier League, have averaged 59.9% possession. They are used to dominating games. They have a pass accuracy of 84.2% and have attempted 629 passes per game, completing 517.9. They are, as the stats and the eye will tell you, used to controlling games; they are used to winning the battle of possession.

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In all of those statistics, the Gunners rank second in the league, which only further compounds their passing dominance this season. The only team to better them, in every single aforementioned measure, is Manchester City, their opponents on Sunday.

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In preparation for most league games, it is normal to expect Arsenal to have the majority of the ball. They are superior in possession than most of the teams that they face and, as a result, will tend to enjoy more of it. That will not be the case against Guardiola’s City. Not only are the Citizens better in possession, with more fluid movement, quicker distribution, and more accurate passing, but they are incessantly aggressive in their defending, pressing high up the pitch, suffocating their opponents, forcing an errant pass, and winning the ball back almost instantaneously. That pattern of game will be extremely difficult for one player in particular.

Granit Xhaka is an excellent passer of the football. The long raking switches of play that he sweeps with his left foot are exquisite, picking out the overlapping full-back in space or feeding a lofted through ball into the channel or clipping an angled cross towards the back post. His long-distance passing is excellent. And it has served Arsenal well throughout his time in North London.

But there is one key weakness that City will be able to exploit. Xhaka is painfully immobile. He is slow to turn, lacking short-area explosion, and if the opposition can hound his first touch, then he will feel the pressure and gift possession away. That is a tactic that Guardiola demands of his player. He requires his players to press their opposition to try and force the mistake and recover possession high up the pitch. Against Xhaka, such opportunities will arise.

The way to divert that strategy is simple: release the ball quickly and accurately. With time to pick his pass, Xhaka can do the latter. But because of his over-reliance on his left foot, he struggles to play passes quickly. He will dither, contorting his body so that he is in a more comfortable position, before playing the pass. Against a team like City, that is too slow. He will be punished.

Furthermore, because City will likely be controlling play, when Arsenal do win the ball back, they will deep in their own half with opposing players in and around them. City will be in the ideal position to starve them of time and space, two things that Xhaka relies on.

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If Arsenal are to have attacking success, then, when they do have the ball, they have to be able to engineer opportunities for their front three to drive at a City defence that could be vulnerable to the counter-attacker attack. For that to happen, Xhaka needs to distribute quickly and accurately. He is the key. Unfortunately, I have little confidence that that is a good thing.