Arsenal Vs Manchester United: Nemanja Matic absence changes everything

Nemanja Matic is reportedly set to miss Manchester United’s Saturday evening trip to the Emirates with a muscular injury suffered in the win over Watford on Tuesday night. For both Arsenal and United, his absence changes everything.

It could be claimed that Manchester United’s trip to the Emirates on Saturday evening is the biggest game of the season for Arsenal. They are four points behind their visitors, but are in a rich vein of form, having beaten Spurs, Burnley and Huddersfield to an aggregate score of 8-0 in their past three matches. Win at the weekend, and they establish themselves as one of the more powerful teams behind Manchester City.

So that is why it is good news that Nemanja Matic may miss the fixture. The Serbian was forced off in the 54th minute of United’s 4-2 win over Watford on Tuesday night with a muscular injury, hobbling to the sideline as he was substituted. And reports in the media are beginning to suggest that he will not make a recovery in time to travel to North London. His absence, if that is to be the case, changes everything.

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Jose Mourinho likes to play defensively when he is away from home against the other top six sides in the Premier League. In fact, even when at home, he is not especially attacking in his approach. In the three games that they have played against top six opposition, United have averaged 43% possession. That may not seem all that bad, but when you consider that, for the season, they average 53.4% possession, over 10% more than that figure, it puts into context the defensive mindset that Mourinho instils in his team for these type of fixtures.

And United have had a strong defensive performance so far this season. Across the year, they have conceded just eight goals, the best record in the division, with only City conceded less than 10. And in those aforementioned three fixtures, they conceded just one goal, an Alvaro Morata header, steering home a Cesar Azpilicueta cross. Moreover, they allowed, on average, 5.66 shots on target per game, and in the one where they had the least amount of possession, with a 38% share of the ball in the 0-0 draw at Liverpool, Jurgen Klopp’s side managed just three shots on target.

In these big fixtures, Mourinho likes to stifle the opposition first and create second. It is simply in his nature. But he doesn’t necessarily have the players to be able to do it on a consistently successful basis. The defenders that are available to him, the likes of Phil Jones, if fit, Chris Smalling, Marcos Rojo, Victor Lindelof, are all flawed in one way or another. The reason United have been so successful defensively is not necessarily because of their defence. There is much more responsibility to be apportioned to David de Gea, who could stake a claim to being the best goalkeeper in the world, and the protection that is offered from the midfield, primarily by Matic.

It is no coincidence that United conceded two goals to Watford in the period that Matic was not on the pitch, even after they had slumped into their own half, protecting what was thought to be a comfortable three-goal lead. And what is even more promising for Arsenal is that the creative talent that they do have, specifically Mesut Ozil and Aaron Ramsey, flourish when they have the freedom to drive through the heart of the midfield, exposing defences with the pace that is around them, and carving out opportunities for themselves and their teammates.

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Matic’s absence changes everything about this game. It changes Mourinho’s ability to structure his team; it changes the freedom that the Arsenal midfield will enjoy in the middle of the park; it changes the protection that United will be able to offer what could be a vulnerable defence. His being missing is huge for this game, and it swings the pendulum, quite substantially, in the home side’s favour.

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