Arsenal: Losing Alexis Sanchez for free is actually smart business

The writing is on the wall. Alexis Sanchez will not be an Arsenal player in 2018/19. But selling him now is not necessarily the best return on investment.

The January transfer window opens shortly, and Arsenal fans stand divided on the topic of an Alexis Sanchez sale. On its most basic level, selling Sanchez now appears more financially rewarding than losing him for free at the end of the season. Yet, this type of thinking blatantly ignores the financial incentives his performance could earn the club, even after his departure.

As a disclaimer, I have gone back and forth on the matter, and still today don’t know what the best option would be. So for the sake of this article I hope to present mostly objective facts, with a bit of assumption sprinkled in.

The assumption:

Alexis Sanchez will earn the Gunners points throughout the season that they otherwise may not earn in his absence. With only ten points separating places two through seven, his influence could realistically be the difference between finishing in the top four or not. After all, it was Sanchez’s brace Thursday night at Crystal Palace that made the difference between a draw and a win.

Related Story: Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Player Ratings

With that out of the way, let’s look at the financial ramifications between, what I’ll call a successful season (i.e., a top four finish and strong run in the Europa League) and an unsuccessful season.

A top 4 finish:

Aside from the prestige, qualifying for Champions League carries a hefty stream of revenue. According to UEFA.com simply partaking in the 2017/18 group stage earns a club €12.7 million. Each group stage win and draw carries even more revenue at €1.5 million and €500 thousand, respectively. Qualifying for the round of 16, a staple of Arsenal’s European exploits is yet another €6 million.

Hypothetically, qualification and a modest group stage record of 2-2-2 leading to a round of 16 appearance would earn the Gunner’s €22.7 million.

Domestically, in 2016/17 each additional place up the Premier League table was good for upwards of £1.9 million, or roughly €2.3 million with the current conversion rate. Point being, fourth vs. fifth place brings that much more money to the table.

More from Pain in the Arsenal

• 3 standout players from 1-0 victory over Everton
• 3 positives & negatives from Goodison Park victory
• Arsenal vs PSV preview: Prediction, team news & lineups
• 3 talking points from Arsenal’s victory at Goodison Park
• Mikel Arteta provides Gabriel Martinelli injury update after Everton win

A strong run in the Europa League:

UEFA.com states the 2017/18 Europa League champions will earn €15.7 million throughout the competition, before including additional market revenue. While Arsenal have prominently featured youngsters and fringe players in the competition, it stands to reason Sanchez would be brought into the fold in the latter stages. Despite the likes of Napoli, Dortmund, and Atletico Madrid entering the fold, it’s not beyond reason to see Arsenal winning the competition.

The intangibles:

Top players want to play for top clubs. In Europe, top clubs are identified as those playing in Champions League. This means securing Champions League for 2018/19, be it through a Europa League title or top four finish, goes a long way towards future recruitment and keeping the players we already have.

To wrap it all up, for those who have been counting along, a “successful season” could be the difference of more than €40 million. Additionally, those numbers quoted were from current or past seasons and we know those figures are only going up.

Next: 5 Things Learned Against Crystal Palace

If Sanchez was going to fetch a reported £60 million in the summer (€67 million), it’s hard to imagine getting that now with only six months left on his contract. So it stands to reason from a purely business standpoint, Sanchez is worth more to Arsenal as a difference maker over the next six months than as a January sale.