Arsenal hoping to re-create history with Luis Enrique

Luis Enrique is being heavily backed into the favourite position as Arsene Wenger’s replacement. Arsenal would be hoping to re-create history if they do choose this path.

The question of who Arsenal will replace Arsene Weger with is an interesting one. They have not had to make such a colossal decision in over two decades. I was two the last time the Gunners hired a new manager. And so, we don’t really have a frame of reference to go off.

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We don’t know what kind of qualities they like in a manager, though it is fair to assume that they are similar to Wenger. We don’t know if they are looking for a long-term project or short-term stabilisation. Other than the reports in the media, the hints that came from Ivan Gazidis in his press conference, and the bookies’ odds, there is not much information to go around.

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Nevertheless, an early look at the latter, the odds of the many possible successors, there has been an interesting development over the past 24 hours. Luis Enrique, former Barcelona manager, has been backed all the way into the favourite at 5/2. That is not especially unusual necessarily, but the manner in which his rise up the ranks tells us a little more.

When the betting opened, Enrique was at 16/1. It was the likes of Carlo Ancelotti and Patrick Vieira that led the running. But their odds at the time, in the region of 5/1, were never as short as Enrique’s are now. Moreover, the past 24 hours alone, 36% of all bets taken on Wenger’s successor have been placed on Enrique. That is a huge proportion.

Obviously, that does not tell us who Arsenal are going to hire. It is just a hint. But looking at history tells us that they are copying a prior tactic of one of Europe’s elite clubs, a club that Gazidis has regularly mentioned as one that is a good model of success and hopefully a future rival.

When Bayern Munich hired Pep Guardiola in 2013, he was coming off a year’s sabbatical after finding the pressures of senior football management a little too much. Bayern were happy to wait, appointing him their coach a year later, insistent that the approach that he implemented at Barcelona was a universal approach that could be used elsewhere.

To an extent, they were right. Although there was no Champions League glory, Guardiola was relentless on the domestic stage, winning the Bundesliga every season that he was there for as well as two DFB Pokals. Arsenal, then, it seems are copying the Germans, at least to an extent. They are hiring an ex-Barcelona coach. They are hiring a coach who is refreshed after a year’s sabbatical. They are hiring a coach who was inordinately successful thanks to a particular process and strategy.

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Does this mean it will work? Does this mean that it will even happen? I have no idea and most certainly not in a position to make a judgement on that. But it is curious that they could be following a past approach of a wonderfully successful club. I do not think that is a coincidence.