Arsenal: Matteo Guendouzi not wrong, but answering wrong question

Matteo Guendouzi has stated that Arsenal can win the Premier League this season. While he’s not wrong, he’s answering the wrong question. The question should be what chance do the Gunners have of winning the Premier League, not whether they are capable.

What can Arsenal actually achieve this season? Given the vast changes that have been undertaken at the club over the past year or two, it is very difficult to say. Obviously, there is Unai Emery’s succession of Arsene Wenger.

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But more than that, of the 14 players that featured against City, only four have been with the club for more than two seasons. The backroom staff has been totally overhauled, Ivan Gazidis, for now, has taken a more prominent role in the corridors of London Colney, Stan Kroenke is preparing a complete takeover. This is a very new club.

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So when it comes to determining what is actually possible this season, there is very little past performance to go off. That said, there are few predicting that Arsenal will be lifting the Premier League trophy when next May rolls around. I certainly am not. But there are some that believe that it is within the capabilities of this current team. Speaking after the loss to Manchester City on Sunday, Matteo Guendouzi was bullish about what he felt this team can achieve this season:

"“Yes, I believe we can win it this season because of the players and staff we have. We truly believe and will do everything we can to win as many games as we can and to have a fantastic season. I truly believe we can do it. Man City are a top team but there are a lot of top teams in this division because the Premier League is the best league in Europe. There are plenty of others but we can be very positive and achieve good things this season. We can win titles because of the environment we have here and the quality of the players at our disposal.”"

I must say, Guendouzi shows a great amount of confidence to say that Arsenal can win the league — some would call it innocence, arrogance of a lack of realism and self-awareness. But Guendouzi isn’t actually wrong. Arsenal can win the league. But ‘can’ is the optimum word of that sentence. The real question should not be whether it is possible but what is the plausibility of it actually happening. That is a far bleaker outlook for the Gunners.

Guendouzi is answering the wrong question. That is not his fault, obviously. He can only reply to the questions that are asked of him. It’s unfair to blame him for providing an honest answer to a poor question. But it does show the range of possible finishes to Arsenal’s season.

While they are capable of winning the league, they are equally as capable as dropping out of the top six and finishing below, say, an Everton or Burnley, for instance. That is the range of finished for this team.

The question, therefore, should ask for the probability of the outcome, not whether the outcome is possible at all. That is how analytics of football predictions should progress in the future.