Arsenal: Out of position means out of balance

Three of Arsenal’s four most attacking players play out of position. That unbalances the team, and it has been proved so far this season. Unai Emery needs to change something.

Arsenal may be in the midst of a five-game winning streak in all competitions, but they’re not playing like a team in the midst of a five-game winning streak. They are relying on bursts of quality here and there to overwhelm teams, before retreating back into their shell and hanging onto the lead. That was the case once more in the 2-0 win over Everton — two goals in three minutes and not much of anything else.

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In essence, they look like an extremely unbalanced team, both in defensive areas and when in possession. The counter-attack has been a major problem, attacking width has been limited, to say the least, and the overall performances have looked a little awkward, unsettled and disjointed.

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Much of this unbalance, I believe, can be put down to the make-up of the front four. Unai Emery, in an attempt to squeeze his plethora of attacking midfielders into the same team without completely abandoning the protection provided the defence, has set-up a system that sees three of the front four play in a position other than their most natural and best-suited one. Inevitably, that upsets the balance of the overall side.

Currently, Alexandre Lacazette, playing through the centre, is the only player fielded in his best position. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, a centre-forward, is on the left wing; Mesut Ozil, a central attacking midfielder, is on the right wing; and Aaron Ramsey, a central midfielder, is playing as a central attacking midfielder, pushed higher up the pitch. Playing one or maybe two players out of their natural position is manageable. But doing it with three of the four attacking positions is too much to overcome. And the stats prove it.

Lacazette, per Understat, is averaging 0.25 expected-goals-per-90-minutes. Last year, that figure was at 0.56. In three full seasons at Lyon, he never dipped below 0.59 and, in the season before he moved to north London, topped out at 0.84 expected-goals-per-90-minutes. Lacazette may be scoring, but it’s at an extremely unsustainable rate.

Similarly, Aubameyang has an expected-goals-per-90-minutes of 0.35. During his time at Borussia Dortmund, he was consistently up near the 0.9 mark. But the statistics worsen when they are split up by position. Aubameyang had an expected-goals-per-90-minutes of 0.42 when playing as a centre-forward and an  expected-goals-per-90-minutes of just 0.28 when playing out wide. Arsenal are creating fewer chances in quality and quantity for their two best goalscorers.

Ozil has also seen his attacking output drop substantially. His expected-goals-per-90-minutes, since 2014/15, averaged out at 0.195. This year, it’s dropped to 0.04, less than a fifth of his normal rate. His expected-assists-per-90-minutes, over the same period, averaged out at 0.3675. This year, it’s dropped to 0.06, less than a sixth of his normal rate.

And Ramsey, also, is less influential than he has ever been. Since 2014, he’s taking fewer shots per 90 minutes than ever, has a lower expected-goals-per-90-minutes than ever and a lower  expected-assists-per-90-minutes than ever.

Arsenal are a team that is playing out of balance. The eyes tell you that. And that stats back it up. It is because of the players playing out of position. It might be time for Emery to make change.