Arsenal: Fortunate misses will not be repeated

Arsenal have conceded plentiful, excellent chances to their opposition. Thus far, they have predominantly been missed. But that will not be repeated throughout the season.

Arsenal have won their last five Premier League matches. And in their past two, not only have they been victorious, but they have also earned a clean sheet, their only two of the season, something that was becoming a little bit of a concern after failing to prevent the opposition from bulging the net for the opening six games of the season in all competitions.

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Unai Emery, when he replaced Arsene Wenger in the summer, highlighted the need to sure up the defence. Consistently under Wenger, vulnerabilities in defence, and especially in the protection that the midfield afforded the defence, undermined the progress of the team. A key motivation for instigating change and turning to Emery was the defensive troubles.

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But although Arsenal have continued to win matches and now keep clean sheets, they are not defending well. Take Saturday’s 2-0 win over Watford as a prime example. Watford failed to score. But, per UnderStat, they had an Expected Goals of 2.38. StatsBomb, another football analytics site, has Watford’s Expected Goals at 1.95 — it all depends on the algorithm used by different organisations, but still illustrates the same point: Watford should have scored approximately two goals, not zero.

The same can be said for Everton last weekend. The Toffees had an Expected Goals of exactly 1.0, according to UnderStat. They didn’t score. In the Everton match, credit must be given to Petr Cech, as must be the case with Bernd Leno against Watford also. Both made some key saves to repel a string of excellent chances that should have been converted. Such good goalkeeping, though, cannot be relied upon throughout a whole season. And neither can wasteful finishing.

Theo Walcott, Richarlison, Troy Deeney and Isaac Success were all guilty of failing to convert opportunities that probably should have been scored. Arsenal were fortunate because of the wastefulness of the opposing attackers. That will not be the case throughout the year.

In fact, a quick glance at the upcoming fixtures and you see a series of natural goalscorers that will not be so shy when a chance to stick the ball in the back of the net comes their way. In the next four league games, the Gunners will face Aleksandr Mitrovic, Jamie Vardy, Wilfried Zaha and Liverpool and their myriad of goal-getters including Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino. If the same quantity and quality of chances are afforded these players, then the sheets will not be staying clean for very long.

Even if the results may suggest otherwise, Emery hasn’t fixed this defence. They’re just getting lucky. And luck cannot be relied upon. Tangible improvements need to be made to the system, the individual performances, especially from Hector Bellerin and Nacho Monreal at full back, and the overall compactness of the team against turnovers and counter-attacks.

The fortunate misses of the past few weeks will not be repeated. Arsenal must defend better than they have been, otherwise, they will be hauling the ball out of the back of the net more times than they would like.