Arsenal Vs Crystal Palace: This has been coming

Arsenal failed to win for the first time in 12 matches with a 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace on Sunday afternoon. But no one should be surprised. This has been coming for some time.

When Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang prodded Arsenal into the lead with a clever, studded finish, I almost expected the Gunners to roll on to their 12th win in succession in all competitions after yet another slow start to the first half. Even as Crystal Palace pressed for the equaliser in the second half, I was still confident that Unai Emery’s side would hold on.

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They didn’t, unfortunately. Palace hauled their way back into the match thanks to a second penalty. The match ended 2-2.

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This was the first time in 12 attempts that Arsenal failed to win. It was almost a shock that they didn’t win, despite their somewhat lacking performance. But this failure to win should not be surprising whatsoever. It has been coming for some time, despite the relentless winning. This is merely a consequence of a string of underwhelming processes. Admittedly, this was a worse performance than in recent matches. But the signs were present for many weeks.

Most notably, the slow starts were always going to come back and haunt this team. Arsenal have now played 10 league games. They have not led any of them at half-time, drawing the seven that they have won and losing two of the three that they have dropped points in — that is telling, in and of itself, illustrating the importance of a good start, something that Emery and his team are yet to enjoy this season.

Another concerning element has been the quantity and quality chances that are being conceded. A lot has been said of the expected goals figures of Arsenal’s matches this season, and how they differ from the actual results. But they do provide a nice illustration of the performances so far, especially defensively.

Consistently, opponents have been able to engineer good shooting opportunities. For a variety of reasons, from bad luck to good goalkeeping, from poor finishing to last-ditch defending, none have been able to take advantage of the mountain of chances that they have been given. But as the season progresses, that will not always be true, as Palace proved on Sunday.

While the results have been positive recently, the processes have not. And, over time, the results will tend towards the processes. As such, when evaluating a team’s efficiency and efficacy, it is more accurate and pertinent to assess their processes, not their results. And now, after 12 matches, the result is matching the process.

This has been coming for a while. I, and many others, have noted that these second-half wins are not reliable, repeatable and sustainable. Sunday’s draw against Palace is just proof of that.