Arsenal: The good and bad of Manchester United FA Cup draw

Arsenal have drawn Manchester United in the fourth round of the FA Cup. There are good and bad elements to this result. I explore them here.

The news came through late Monday night. Arsenal would have a home tie in the fourth round of the FA Cup. That, I believed, was significant. The draw is random. You never know who your opponent will be. But you have a 50:50 chance of playing at home, and that makes a substantial difference, especially for a team like the Gunners.

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Then the second ball was scooped out. Manchester United. While Chelsea would be playing Sheffield Wednesday or Luton Town at Stamford Bridge or Manchester City would be hosting Burnley, Arsenal would have to beat the hottest team in the country if they wanted to progress in a competition that offers perhaps their best chance of a trophy.

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The bad news of this draw is obvious. United are the fourth-best team that could have been drawn out, behind City, Chelsea and Spurs. With 31 other teams, after replays, in the fourth round, that is rather unlucky. Even in the comforts of the Emirates stadium, where Unai Emery’s side have been very good this season, losing just one game all year, that coming on the opening weekend against Manchester City, this is far from a winnable tie.

Unfortunately, the bad news does not stop there. Stretching from the end of January through to the beginning of February, Arsenal will now play Chelsea (H), Man. Utd (H), and Man. City (A) in consecutive weekends, with a home match against Cardiff City offering some rest bite in between. The Chelsea and City matches come in the Premier League. Lose all three of these, which is not out of the question, and suddenly, only the Europa League is left to play for.

However, there is a positive element to this draw. When Arsenal won the FA Cup two years ago, they had to beat Manchester City and then Chelsea in the semi-final and final. Realistically, they will have to do a similar run this year in the latter stages. But early going has perhaps levelled out the playing field somewhat.

Liverpool are already out after the lost 2-1 to Wolves on Monday night. Assuming Emery is able to lead his team to victory, Man. Utd will be out also. That’s the fifth round and two of the top six are already out of the competition. Spurs play Crystal Palace away, which is no gimme, and Leicester City and Bournemouth also lost in the third round.

Very quickly, the fifth round could look like a rather weak field of teams. And then the FA Cup becomes an extremely winnable competition, one that the Gunners would be one of the favourites to win, particularly considering their storied history with three victories in the last five years.

So yes, the Man. Utd draw is a little down-heartening. And yes, it will be a difficult match to win, for sure. But there is a positive element to this draw, and it could well lead to Emery’s first trophy at the Emirates.