Arsenal Vs Chelsea: A must-win already?

Arsenal host Chelsea on Saturday. Six points behind the Blues, if they harbour hopes of a top-four finish, is this a must-win match already?

When Unai Emery arrived at Arsenal in the summer, there was much talk about what his goals for his first season in charge should be. Ivan Gazidis, then chief executive, put the question to bed quickly. Progress and challenging for a top-four finish were what Emery needed to achieve.

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That latter goal is suddenly looking rather difficult. After a strong start to the season, at least result’s wise, Arsenal seemed on target to challenge for the top four. There was still a long way to go, obviously, but they had put themselves in a position to mount an attempt in the second half of the season.

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However, during the festive period, they have lost to Southampton, Liverpool and West Ham United, as well as only drawing against Brighton on Boxing Day. Those four matches, incidentally, are the last four away fixtures. It is clear what is harming the Gunners’ top-four chances. And after Saturday’s defeat to West Ham, Emery accepted that the top four will now be difficult to attain:

"“Now it’s more difficult, it’s clear. I think the most important thing for us is to recover our confidence and be more competitive. We need consistency over 38 matches. Now it isn’t enough at the moment. [West Ham] is a bad result. If we had won we are playing against Chelsea with a three point maximum distance. The big opportunity for us is that we can take in our hands the possibility to be closer to them. This result makes that more difficult.”"

Next weekend, Arsenal host Chelsea. The Blues, after the weekend’s results, now sit six points clear, in fourth position. Spurs are a further point clear of Chelsea and Manchester United, after beating Spurs, are now level on points with Emery’s side. Suddenly, the match against Chelsea carries the utmost importance.

Would it be too much to describe it as a ‘must-win’, if a top-four challenge is genuinely attainable for the north London outfit? Well, perhaps. Even a draw does not leave Emery and his players out of it. They would still be six points off the top four with plenty of time to run, including matches against Spurs and Man. Utd in which ground could be made up.

But if they were to lose, then, suddenly, the top four perhaps looks like a little beyond this squad. Nine points behind Chelsea. Likely three points behind United and ten points behind Spurs, Brighton and Fulham being their next opponents respectively. At that point, I think you could realistically rule out their chances of Champions League qualification through the league.

So no, this is not a must-win game. Not yet, anyway. But it is a must-not-lose game. That, though, is something that I have little confidence in Arsenal being able to achieve.