Arsenal and Mesut Ozil: Realistically, how much is he worth?

It is becoming increasingly likely that Arsenal will try and sell Mesut Ozil this summer. That has me asking the question: Realistically, how much is he actually worth?

Arsenal are in wage hell. They have been for some time. Years of poor transfer decisions, both in terms of who they sell and who they purchase, mismanagement of contracts and an inability to develop talent has led to them overspending on mediocre players, resulting in the sixth-best Premier League squad that carries the fifth-highest wage bill.

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To put their wage difficulties into context, Manchester City’s squad, according to the 2017/18 accounts, costs just £37 million more per year. That is equivalent to £711,000-a-week, or two elite players. I think we can all agree that City’s squad is far better than Arsenal’s by far more than just two extra elite players.

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So, the Gunners need to make moves to ease their wage stretching. They are also trying to build a squad that is aligned with what Unai Emery wants to do. Ideally, the squad would be stocked full of players that suit the style and tactics that Emery will attempt to implement. If he wants quick wingers, they will buy quick wingers. If he wants creative midfielders but compromises on defensive security, then such players will be acquired.

With all this being said, it is becoming increasingly clear that Arsenal will try and sell Mesut Ozil. He has dropped out of Emery’s thinking this season, not really fitting with what the Spaniard is wanting to do with his midfield, and is the eighth-highest-paid player in the world. A club that is tight up against its wage bill cannot have the eighth-highest-paid player sat on the bench.

That leads me to ask, therefore, should Emery and Raul Sanllehi come to offload Ozil this summer, realistically, how much can they actually get for a 30-year-old coming off the worst season of his career that is paid £350,000-a-week with an ever-shrinking market?

You see, to be able to sell something, you have to have a willing buyer. And I am not sure how many willing buyers there will be of Ozil. In fact, excluding clubs from China, I cannot envisage any team in the world happy to swallow his wages. And Ozil will most likely want to stay in Europe and reject a move to China. Suddenly, Arsenal are a bit stuck.

Moreover, if everybody knows that they are desperate to sell, the price will only be driven down. Why overpay for a commodity that needs to be sold? Especially a commodity that will have little longevity and almost no re-sale value whatsoever. It is going to be very difficult to sell Ozil this summer.

To put a number on it, I feel that Arsenal will do brilliantly to sell Ozil for anything more than £25 million. More realistically, the price will be closer to £20 million. That may seem like a pitiful amount for a World Cup-winner, but who is actually going to want him? This really is a mess.