Arsenal Vs BATE Borisov: It wasn’t that bad

Arsenal fell 1-0 to BATE Borisov on Thursday night in rather humiliating fashion. But unlike recent victories, this performance was actually better in some elements.

Throughout the season, I have been shouting caution during Arsenal’s victories. Throughout their 22-game unbeaten run, for instance, although they were winning plenty of matches, there were signs to be concerned about for the remainder of the year. It would be easy to get caught up in the results, but that misses the underlying processes that are at play.

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Unai Emery’s first season in north London is only partly about the results. Yes, he wants to win every match that he plays, every competition that he partakes in. But there is an added focus on the process, laying down the foundations of his tenure, that must also be focused upon.

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In that regard, even in many of the victories this season, there have been some rather worrying tendencies. A lack of creativity in the final third, major vulnerabilities against the counter-attack, an inability to consistently press successfully and control the match in midfield when playing with two centre-forwards. But this also means that the reverse is true. Even in losses, there can be things to be positive about. And, while perhaps controversial given the vitriolic response to the defeat, I do believe that Thursday’s night 1-0 loss to BATE Borisov is not all doom and gloom.

Let just contrast the basic statistics of the match with the 2-1 win over Huddersfield Town from the weekend. Arsenal had 45% against Huddersfield, were out-shot 15 to nine, had four shots on target to Huddersfield’s six and had zero corners to Huddersfield’s five. Huddersfield were the better team, and yet they lost.

On Thursday, Arsenal had 77% of the possession, 16 shots to six, and four times the amount of corners, 12 to three. The only statistic that was comparable was shots on target, both teams totalling three. According to Scott Willis’ expected goals model, the Gunners had an expected goals of 2.01 while BATE had an expected goals of just 0.69. And BATE’s only goal came from a freekick, not open play, something that is statistically a little random.

Look, I am not trying to defend Emery and his team’s performance. This was not good enough. BATE lost 6-0 and 4-2 to the B team last season and have not played a competitive match in two months. Realistically, Arsenal should have been expecting to beat them by two or three goals comfortably.

But just as their victories have not been as impressive as the result may suggest, this loss was not as damning. Had the bounce of the ball been a little different, had Alexandre Lacazette not been a hair offside, had Henrikh Mkhitaryan converted in the first 90 seconds, the conversation surrounding the club would not be so dark.

This was not a good performance, not by any stretch of the imagination. And major questions need to be answered because of it. But it also wasn’t quite as bad as some people are making out.