Arsenal and Unai Emery: When does ‘trust the process’ die?

From the very start of the season, Arsenal have asked fans to trust in the Unai Emery process. But at what point should the process be deemed unsuccessful?

In 2013, Manchester United hired David Moyes to succeed Sir Alex Ferguson. It is the toughest job that any manager has taken on. By April 22nd of that first season, 10 months after he was hired, the Scot was fired.

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Moyes received an ageing squad in desperate need of investment. His list of proposed players in his first summer was largely ignored, only Marouane Fellaini following from Everton. And within one season, Man. Utd deemed that the process they selected to usher in the post-Ferguson era was the wrong one.

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Many people agreed with the decision. But I think that most can agree that 10 months is not long enough to accurately assess whether a process, in any walk of life, is the correct one or not. Moyes never had a chance. Now, in hindsight, you could make an argument that Man Utd were correct in their assessment of Moyes’ managerial abilities. He has done little since. But they were not making that decision with hindsight. They were making it based on just 10 months of evidence, plus a brilliantly successful 10 years with Everton prior to his arrival.

Five years later, Arsenal made the same decision as Man Utd. They hired a different manager — Unai Emery instead of Moyes. They did it for different reasons. They are in a different position to what United were. But they had to replace a two-decade-plus manager and select a process that they believed to handle the second-toughest job in the history of the sport.

It took United 10 months to determine Moyes’ managerial qualities. Emery was hired in late May. That was nine months ago. When, then, can Arsenal accurately analyse the ‘Unai Emery’ process and when can they make a decision on his and the club’s future based on that analysis?

I would argue that nine months is not even close to being enough time, especially given the limited resources he has been given and the state of the squad he inherited. In fact, I would suggest that the proper period of time should be closer to two or three years with hundreds of millions spent at Emery’s dictation in the transfer market.

But there are some already calling him a bad manager. There are still others arguing for Arsenal to move on from him. Actually, they might be right. Emery might be a bad manager and the Gunners might be better served from sacking him and hiring someone else. But I cannot see how anybody can make that judgement based off a little more than half a season and two transfer windows, one of which he wasn’t able to make any permanent signings.

This leads me to ask: When does ‘trust the process’ die? When is the right time for a club to accurately determine whether the process is the right one or not? I do not know the answer to that question, but it is something that Arsenal must consider. Otherwise, they will make either a too hasty or too hesitant decision.