Arsenal: Expected goals reveals good and bad of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Pierre-Emerick is underperforming his expected goals this season. The statistic helps reveal the good and the bad of the Arsenal centre-forward.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is one of the best goalscorers in the world. He has been one of the best goalscorers in the world for many years. His numbers speak for themselves. But that does not mean that he is necessarily a ruthless finisher. In fact, I would argue the very opposite.

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The Arsenal centre-forward will score a terrific number of goals, but he will also miss a painful number of chances, many of them clear-cut. He does have the skill to convert difficult opportunities, but through lapses in concentration and somewhat inconsistent technique, he struggles to be regularly clinical.

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And the statistics prove it. This week, Orbinho of Opta tweeted out the top goalscorers in the Premier League versus their expected goals, that is the number of goals they would be expected to score based on the quality and quantity of the shots they have taken. It is a good comparison to see how good a finisher a particular player is. If they outperform their expected goals, then they are good at shooting; if they are underperforming, then they are not.

Aubameyang has scored 17 league goals. He ranks joint-second in the top goalscorers chart. But of the top 10, he is the only one to underperform his expected goals. Every single other top-10 goalscorer in the Premier League has scored more goals than the quality and quantity of their shots would indicate.

More than that, Aubameyang has the highest expected goals, 18.2, than every other player in the league. Mohamed Salah is the next closest with 17. Sergio Aguero, at 15.8, is the only other player with an expected goals more than 15.

This tells us two significant things about Aubameyang’s style of play. The first is that he is not a great finisher. In fact, I would go as far as to say that he is actually quite a poor finisher, despite the number of goals that he scores. He does have the ability to shoot excellently every now and then, but on a consistent basis, his finishing is largely wasteful. That is the bad.

But the good is more important and significant for his style of play. Aubameyang’s goals stem from the genius and sharpness of his movement. The reason why he can be wasteful in front of goal and still score so many goals is that he creates an inordinate amount of chances for himself because of the brilliance of his movement off the ball. Yes, he relies on service, but his runs off the ball make the service that much easier.

Aubameyang, like every player, has positives and negatives, and this stat proves it. But at the end of it all, as long as he scores goals as prolifically as he does, then he is absolutely invaluable to this Arsenal team.