Arsenal: Shooting conversion brilliant and yet concerning

Statistically speaking, the 2018/19 version of Arsenal are the best finishers in the history of the Premier League. This is both brilliant and concerning.

Consistently this season, Arsenal have relied on their two great centre-forwards to bail them out. Both Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have scored critical goals throughout the year, almost from nothing, to win matches. But to rely on them consistently is a precarious approach.

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Both Lacazette and Aubameyang are terrific goalscorers. They have totalled for 31 Premier League goals this season. Only Saido Mane and Mohamed Salah for Liverpool and Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling for Manchester City have more as a duo from the same team. Nine of Lacazette’s 13 goals have been match-winners, the joint-most in the league.

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And as a team, the Gunners have consistently outperformed the number of chances they have created. After 34 games, they have had 413 shots in the Premier League. From those 413 shots, they have scored 68 goals. That is a conversion rate of 16.46%, which is comparable with some of the best seasons in the history of the Premier League. It is an extremely impressive feat, much of which is owed to the consistent and clinical goalscoring of Lacazette and Aubameyang.

It is, however, also a concerning trend. While being ‘good at finishing’ is obviously an advantageous skill set, from an analytical point of view, the very phrase ‘good at finishing’ is a little meaningless. Over large sample sizes, players tend to regress towards the mean, which, according to Opta, is a conversion rate of 9.12%. Some players are more adept at shooting than others, but the difference is minimal.

Over a long period of time, what is a better indicator of the goalscoring potential of a team is the number of shots taken, especially those in the six-yard box. And consistently this season, Arsenal have been out-shot by their opponent, as they were in Sunday’s loss to Crystal Palace despite dominating possession.

They rank 12th for total shots taken this season. They rank eighth for shots taken in the penalty area and sixth for shots taken in the six-yard box. Finishing in the top four with those statistics would be a massive over-performance and is unsustainable over a number of seasons. Moreover, they rank ninth for shots conceded per game, more than Watford, Wolves and Everton, as well as all of the top six bar Manchester United.

Perhaps most concerningly, over all of the 34 games this season, opponents have actually outshot Arsenal this season. Looking long-term, that is most definitely not a recipe for success. This season, Unai Emery and his two centre-forwards have made it work. But they cannot be relied upon to replicate their form over a sustained period.

The clinical nature of Arsenal’s attacks has been refreshing and encouraging. But it is also concerning. Improvements, then, must be made to be both a creative and ruthless attacking force.