Arsenal: The case against Unai Emery

Unai Emery is a year into the job at Arsenal. The results have been mixed up until this point, but there is a case to be made against the Spaniard. And this is it.

After Wednesday night’s Europa League final defeat to Chelsea, there has been a great debate in Arsenal circles: Is Unai Emery actually doing a good job, is he the right man to lead the club forward, and how difficult are the conditions that he is working under?

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Analysing Emery’s first season at the club is not easy. First and foremost, it is his first season. Analysing anyone in any job after one year is somewhat futile. That said, this is the insatiably demanding world of football and there is a desperate desire for quick, if not always accurate, analysis and opinion.

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The argument for Emery stems from the despairing situation he inherited. A lacking squad, little money to invest, a hamstrung by underperforming players on eye-watering wages. When taking on such a job, it would be foolish to expect vast improvements in the first year of what has been unequivocally been described as a ‘project’. And there have been some signs of improvement. Arsenal are better ‘winners’ than they were a year ago, individual players have grown throughout the season, and many of the problems that have been highlighted existed a long time before Emery arrived.

That said, there is also an argument to be made against the work that Emery has put in during his first year. And it would be naive to not admit that, no matter your support for Arsene Wenger’s successor. The underlying statistics that detail the performance of the team are concerning. The best demonstration I have seen of these comes in this Twitter thread, which I would highly recommend you read.

The above graphic nicely summarises the points made in the thread. The basic argument is this: Arsenal have got worse under Emery. From the expected goals for and against statistics to the number of shots they generate and concede, the underlying trends suggest that this team is worse now than they were last year.

Whether that statement is true or not, I am not so sure. I would certainly argue that they look more cohesive than they did in the latter years under Wenger, despite what the numbers say. That said, I can at least listen to the argument that this team has declined over the past 12 months, which is somewhat concerning under the tutelage of a ‘coach’ whose job it is to ‘coach’ up those he works with.

But even if I was to cede that Arsenal have declined under Emery, I still do not think that calling for his firing is logical. Short-term decline does not necessitate long-term decline. Admittedly, it is not an encouraging sign, but such was the situation he inherited, I would suggest it was somewhat inevitable that the team may not come together in less than 12 months.

There is a case to be made that Emery is not doing a good job at Arsenal. Even his biggest supporters must concede that much. But that does not mean that he should be fired either. Patience, as ever, is critical, even in the face of falling behind.