Arsenal: Ryan Fraser or Yannick Carrasco; production or potential?

Arsenal seemingly have two leading wing targets: Ryan Fraser and Yannick Carrasco. The question of which is better comes down to production or potential.

Arsenal need a winger. That much is quite clear. In fact, it was completely obvious last summer, after they sold Alexis Sanchez, Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain over the course of six months. But as the season progressed, it became quite painstakingly plain: there was not one capable winger in the squad. Not one.

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And so, this summer, the wing position is a main priority to address, even with the pitiful £40-45 million budget that the club is having to work in. It is still early stages of the summer window, but there are two names that have seemingly risen to the top of the potential list: Ryan Fraser of Bournemouth and Yannick Carrasco of Dalian Yifang in China.

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Neither are perfect targets, of course. But they play similar positions, will cost roughly the same, somewhere in the region of £25 million, and are the same age, 25. So how do you separate the two possible signings? How do you determine which would be a smarter acquisition? Well, I think it is a question of how production and potential are viewed, and whether a transfer should focus on one or the other.

In terms of pure talent, Carrasco is a superior player. Coming through the Atletico Madrid ranks, he was considered as one of the brightest talents in European football, went to the 2018 World Cup with Belgium, starting at left wing-back in Roberto Martinez’s 3-4-3, and has been courted by some of the biggest teams in the world, which is partly which it was such a shock when he departed for China in the prime of his career.

Fraser, meanwhile, is a more limited player. He does not have the natural skill, the dribbling ability, or the propensity to produce the spectacular that Carrasco does. There are manipulations of the ball that Carrasco can do that Fraser could only dream of. But the Scottish international has been more productive.

Last season, only Eden Hazard notched more assists than Fraser in the Premier League, and he created more big chances, 28, than anyone else in the league. In fact, he created 10 more than any other player, a clear sign of the productivity of his delivery from the left flank. Of players who played more than 1000 minutes, he ranked fifth in chances created per 90 minutes. He also scored seven goals. All of this while playing for a middling team.

Yet, the ceiling is that much higher with Carrasco. If his attitude does not get in the way and he settles to life well at the Emirates, he could feasibly turn into a world-class wide attacker. Could Fraser ever be anything more than decent and productive but ultimately limited?

And so, the question of which would be the better signing relies on your view of production and potential. Fraser is safer. Carrasco offers a greater reward. Deciding between the two, then, is not easy.