Arsenal Vs Aston Villa: Please play Reiss Nelson

Arsenal host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday. If they want to win, Unai Emery must play Reiss Nelson, even though it has nothing to do with Nelson himself.

Early in the season, it is difficult to predict what managers are thinking. Because some players are still regaining their match sharpness and the normal rigours and routines of a season have not yet been laid down, European competition not starting until five Premier League games this year, the starting XIs are often switched up quite significantly.

Find the latest episode of the Pain in the Arsenal Podcast here — Unai Emery out?

However, once things settle down a little, the midweek-weekend schedule begins and everyone acclimatises to the rhythms of the season, it does become a little easier to foresee a manager’s thinking. And for Arsenal and head coach Unai Emery, the same is true.

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Thursday night saw the Gunners’ first Europa League match of the campaign. Given that Emery is sure to prioritise the Premier League in search of a vital top-four finish, the players who featured heavily in Frankfurt are unlikely to start when Aston Villa arrive at the Emirates on Sunday afternoon. Conversely, and perhaps more importantly, those who did not start on Thursday will almost certainly play a key role at the weekend.

Matteo Guendouzi, Dani Ceballos and Nicolas Pepe were all dropped to the bench, only the latter two appearing for second-half cameos. All three are expected to start against Villa. Another who miss the Eintracht Frankfurt victory was Reiss Nelson, the 19-year-old surprisingly left on the bench. Given the signing of Pepe, it was anticipated that Nelson would be a key player in the Europa League and domestic cups. And yet, playing on the left-wing was fellow academy product Bukayo Saka, not Nelson.

That suggests to me that Emery is planning to start Nelson against Villa on Sunday. With Lacazette out injured and a calamitous shift to a 4-4-2 narrow diamond last weekend, I expect to see Emery return to the 4-3-3, using Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang through the middle with Nelson fielded on one flank.

Whether that is what actually happens, time will tell. This is all guesswork, really. But it is absolutely what should happen. And that is for two main reasons: the first is that Nelson needs game time to develop and the Europa League is the perfect place to give him that game time. So why would you not play him in the Europa League only to then not play him in the Premier League as well?

The second is more important, and actually has nothing to do with Nelson himself and everything to do with the system that Emery will use. If Emery starts Nelson, he commits to playing a 4-3-3, not the dreaded 4-4-2 diamond. That is a better formation period. It is certainly a more suitable formation when playing against a low block that you can press high up the pitch and break down. The width is crucial to both aspects.

All in all, then, Nelson must play against Vila. Which probably means he won’t. Because just as difficult as predicting what Emery will do, is just how often he gets it wrong anyway.