Arsenal: Mesut Ozil’s ‘big game’ argument a fallacy

Mesut Ozil has defended his ‘big game’ record by stating that Arsenal are no better without him. While that is true, that does not exactly support his point.

Are Arsenal a better team without Mesut Ozil? When it comes to the ‘lesser games’, the answer is, invariably, ‘no’. Ozil is a uniquely gifted creative player who excels when his team has a lot of the possession. But what about in the ‘big games’? What about versus the rest of the top six? It is a far fairer question to ask.

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The criticism that is levelled at Ozil for his apparently subpar performances in these matches was put to the German by David Ornstein this week. Ozil defended his position. Here is his argument (I wanted to copy the quotes in full, despite them being long, to be accurate in the reporting of Ozil’s argument):

"‘It always happens that an ex-player stands there on TV and criticises me. Others just continue the theme and it gets in everyone’s heads.’"

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"‘If we don’t do well in a ‘big’ game, it’s always my fault. If that’s true, how do you explain our results in the ‘big’ games when I wasn’t involved? There’s no real difference. I know people expect me to offer more, dictate play and make the difference — I do, too — but it’s not that straightforward.’"

"‘I’m not the only player in the team and, don’t forget, some of our opponents are simply better than us. Also, what is a ‘big’ or ‘small’ game? In the Premier League, anyone can beat anyone. Look at Wolves and Norwich beating Man City, or Newcastle and West Ham beating Man United.’"

"‘So you can’t say my good performances only came in ‘small’ games because these games don’t really exist. The intensity is there in every match and often the ‘small’ teams raise their standard against the ‘big’ teams.’"

Ozil’s argument is essentially as follows:

• Arsenal struggled in big games, whether I played or not
• Therefore, I am not the problem in big games
• Moreover, all games are big games as every team can beat every other team in the Premier League
• Therefore, even in ‘lesser games’, in which I am criticised less, I am still performing well in ‘big games’.

Now, the latter half of that argument is just not true. Just because Norwich City happened to beat Manchester City on a one-off occasion does not make games against Norwich as difficult as ones against City. So his argument here can just be flat-out rejected as false.

However, the former line of thinking does have at least some form of credibility. I went back and charted every Arsenal game against the ‘top six’ since the start of the 2013/14 season, Ozil’s first year at the club. Here are the numbers:

With Ozil, Arsenal won eight, lost 19 and drew 17; without Ozil, they won four, lost seven and drew five. So, the Gunners win percentage was marginally better without Ozil than with him (18% versus 25%), but it is not completely different enough to draw a genuine conclusion. I also charted Ozil’s goal contributions. In the 44 games he played against top-six opposition, Ozil contributed five goals and ten assists. It is not great. Oh, and this does not include the Europa League final embarrassment.

But more than this, Ozil’s riposte misses the point. His critics are not solely blaming him for the collective team’s results — or at least, the smart ones are not as they realise naming one player as responsible is ridiculous. Rather, they are simply highlighting that he does not perform well against big teams. Responding to this argument by saying that the team does not play well against big teams whether he is there or not does not actually address the matter.

All in all, then, Ozil’s ‘big game’ argument falls to various fallacies. It is not true, responds to the wrong argument, and looks to shift the blame. Like it or not, Ozil does not play well against top teams. Sadly, neither do any of his teammates either.