Arsenal: 4-4-2 cannot be the Unai Emery identity

For the first time this season, Arsenal head coach Unai Emery used a flat 4-4-2 in Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace. It must not, however, be his long-term identity. Here’s why.

As soon as it became clear that Arsenal might actually sign Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Borussia Dortmund, there was an immediate problem: they were breaking their club transfer record to sign an out-and-out centre-forward just six months after they broke their club transfer record to sign an out-and-out centre-forward.

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Arsene Wenger wrestled with how to partner Aubameyang with Alexandre Lacazette, trying to squeeze them into the same team without sacrificing the control that a three-man central midfield provides. Largely, he struggled.

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Ever since he took over from Wenger in 2018, Unai Emery has toiled with the same problem: he obviously recognises the talent and impact of Lacazette and Aubameyang, but also does not want to upset the balance of the team by playing with two centre-forwards. He has used Aubameyang as a winger, a 4-4-2 diamond and a 3-5-2. The different approaches have enjoyed varying success, but one thing rings true with all: Emery is not happy with the balance of the team.

In Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace, the Arsenal head coach unveiled another tactical wrinkle for the first time: a flat 4-4-2. His pre-season set-up hinted at it but never has he used the shape in a competitive match with Aubameyang and Lacazette as a part of the team. Like with previous tactical attempts, it had varying success.

While this system allowed Emery to field both Aubameyang and Lacazette through the middle, where they are at their most effective, and it did provide Arsenal with strong counter-attacking opportunities if they chose to attack more directly, it also stented the control they were able to exert over the match, as illustrated by Palace’s 52% in the first half.

Now, in a one-off match like this, there is little wrong with using a 4-4-2 if Emery believes that is the best system for his team to exploit the weaknesses of that specific opposition. However, if this is the shape that he intends to define his tactical identity by, there will be major issues for Arsenal over an extended period.

Results throughout modern football have proven that a flat 4-4-2 does not provide the necessary command of a match to consistently win. There is a reason why Wenger, Sir Alex Ferguson and others veered away from the traditional 4-4-2 shapes of the ’90s and early ’00s and turned towards a three-man central midfield. They recognised that to win over an extended period of time, your team must exercise control over games. That does not mean that you will win every game that you control, but over a large sample size, the probability is that you will win more than you lose.

While Aubameyang and Lacazette are more impactful through the middle, it is better a compromise to shift one to the wing or drop one altogether and maintain the balance of the team by using a third central midfielder than it is to crowbar both into the same team as centre-forwards.

Modern football proves that 4-4-2 invariably does not work. And yet, that is the route that Emery and Arsenal are seemingly set to go down. That would be a grave mistake.