Arsenal: What do you do with Shkodran Mustafi?

Shkodran Mustafi has been tremendous for Arsenal in recent weeks. With a year left on his contract at the end of the season, what in the world do you do with him now?

How do differentiate between genuine improvement and brief periods of good form? And once you have, how do you value these short spurts of growth when they are the anomaly to the remainder of the evidence? It is not easy, and many have been caught on the wrong side of the judgement.

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Determining inconsistent footballers’ value is difficult. When they are hot, they are worth their weight in gold; when they are cold, nothing could be further from the truth. And yet, if you can get the best of an inconsistent player and stretch it out over an extended period, thereby making them consistent, bargains can be found.

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It has been said plentifully throughout his time at Arsenal, but if it were not for his moments of madness, Shkodran Mustafi would be an ideal modern-day centre-half: strong in the air, quick across the ground, aggressive in the tackle, calm and composed on the ball, athletic, comfortable defending space, especially against the counter-attack. The problem was always the German’s propensity to make silly errors that undermined all the good work that he did produce. But of late, Mustafi has ironed out the errors and put together a string of excellent performances.

Ever since Mikel Arteta arrived as the new head coach, he said that every player would get a clean slate to impress and stake their claim in the starting XI. Arteta then doubled-down on that sentiment regarding Mustafi, stating that he believed he could coax out a capable defender from the oft-befuddled German. Well, the proof is in the pudding, and thus far, the pudding is rather tasty.

Mustafi made one critical error in a 2-2 draw with Chelsea in January. His short backpass handed a penalty to the Blues and sent David Luiz packing down the tunnel. But for the remaining hour of that very match, he was superb. He then continued his resurrection tour with strong showing versus Bournemouth, Burnley, Newcastle United, Everton and even Olympiakos, when the rest of his teammates floundered.

However shocking it is to say, Mustafi has been one of Arsenal’s best performers in the Arteta era and is now a crucial player — he will continue to be a crucial player throughout the remainder of the season given the lack of alternative options at centre-half. But what should the club do with him when the summer rolls around?

Has Mustafi done enough to prove that he can be a long-term solution at the position? No, even if he is still only 27. But has he done enough to prove he can be valuable? Yes, but where does that leave him with just a year left on his contract and the chance to finally offload a player that the club have been desperate to bin for several years but unwilling to drop their price to a palatable figure?

It all comes down to predicting the future of an inconsistent player, which is, by definition, inconsistent. Determining players’ futures is hard enough. Doing so when their form lurches from deplorable to delightful is nigh-on impossible. But when it comes to the future of Mustafi, that is what Arsenal must do, which is no easy task.