Arsenal and Dani Ceballos: To buy or not to buy

Dani Ceballos’ loan deal will come to an end this summer. It poses a very plain and awkward question for Arsenal: Buy or not to buy?

When Arsenal signed Dani Ceballos on a season-long loan last summer, there was hope that he would provide that smoothing, ball-progressing, playmaking midfield presence that has been painfully absent from the team ever since Santi Cazorla’s horrific ankle injury.

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It would be fair to say that Ceballos has not quite lived up to those expectations. He has not underperformed, per se, but he has struggled to nail down a regular place in the starting XI, toiled away with injuries that have stented both his availability and match-sharpness, and has only begun to enjoy regular opportunities in recent weeks.

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Nevertheless, despite these inconsistencies and difficulties, there have been plenty of positive moments. From his debut against Burnley in the second game of the season, which was his best of the year and one of Arsenal’s most effective in central midfield, to his recent emergence as a controlling anchorman in Mikel Arteta’s 4-2-3-1 shape alongside Granit Xhaka, Ceballos has illustrated what he is capable when everything clicks.

His greatest skillset is his technique and awareness. The combination of this makes him terrific in possession. He is a very capable passer, both long and short, and his decision-making and vision are excellent, meaning he is able to exploit positional mistakes of the opposition defence to play incisive balls forward that few other players have either the vision to see or skill to execute. At the base of Arteta’s midfield, these qualities have come to the fore. As statistics from The Athletic illustrate, Ceballos averages more than 10 passes per 90 minutes that progress the team up the pitch by 15-plus metres. Of central midfielders, Granit Xhaka is second with 8.6 per 90.

Ceballos also combines with superb dribbling skill. Only Joe Willock averages more carries of more than 10 metres per 90 minutes, while Ceballos’ twisting, turning style has helped Arsenal to become much more difficult to press. This was a crucial issue in the absence of Cazorla in recent seasons, especially when the cumbersome Xhaka was targetted by opponents.

However, this summer, Arsenal will have a major decision to make regarding the future of Ceballos. The Spaniard is set to return to Real Madrid but could reportedly be available to sign for around £40 million. After spending a largely productive year in north London, he might be convinced to return to the club on a permanent basis, especially with his relationship with Arteta seemingly blossoming. But is he worth it?

While Ceballos is Arsenal’s most progressive player regarding his passing and dribbling, there are issues. Is he a long-term fit as a holding player at the base of the midfield? Does he score or create enough to play higher up the pitch? Will his lack of speed and athleticism cause issues in the high-octane Premier League, as has been illustrated on occasions already? Despite his predominantly positive performances, these are fair questions. And should a central midfielder who will cost £40 million arrive with so many doubts?

It seems as though Arsenal may have more time than they first envisaged to finalise their decision regarding Ceballos’ future. But as the summer transfer window looms and the Arteta reboot looks to kick into overdrive, the role that Ceballos could play and whether it is worth the outlay is set to be a crucial decision.