How Gabriel Martinelli could be the key for Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Gabriel Martinelli is an xG Monster Who Adds Threat

Any discussion surrounding Martinelli has to be tempered by the likelihood of him actually starting matches under Arteta. While injuries present an opportunity, with Leeds to come in the EFL Cup in midweek, a fixture he is nailed on to start, his chances for Friday are once again limited.

Add to that the structural framework Arteta demands his players operate in and someone who thrives in broken play, and the almost anarchic style of heading for goal as soon as the ball is in possession, means the boundaries for involvement decrease once more.

But Arsenal need someone to break the mould. The team needs players who won’t play the choreographed pass out wide and will try to beat their man in individualistic fashion; someone to fashion a shot in an area where the emphasis will otherwise be on keeping the ball for no apparent reason.

Key in Martinelli’s case is that he doesn’t just take shots, he takes dangerous shots. His npxG per shot still stands at 0.16, which puts him in the 92nd percentile (FBref) among attacking midfielders and wingers.

His xA of 0.88 is also 88th percentile worthy (a total npxG+xA of 0.68 is 97th percentile) and for all the caveats of the small sample size over the past 365 days and what game state he may come on for Arsenal in, the numbers need attention.

His chances of starting depend heavily on who else is in the team. If Saka is out, Arteta will never field two wide players of Pepe and Martinelli along with Aubameyang for fear of balance, so it may be that Smith Rowe has to shift out onto the right with Odegaard centrally. Not ideal, that.

The issue isn’t Arsenal taking shots – they took 17 against Palace – it’s the quality of them. Martinelli can play inside and outside, just as he can wriggle into spaces of danger and run beyond the last man.

No inclusion comes without some reservations and it’s no secret he’s still raw in his ability and may often lean too heavily on instinct. But for a team lacking in bodies who think outside of Arteta’s perfectly constructed and rigid metallic box, that nonconformity to the norm could be the distinctiveness this team needs.