Dusan Vlahovic: 3 reasons Arsenal shouldn’t sign striker

3. Vlahovic’s Scoring Rate Isn’t Sustainable in Premier League

Now for the technical side of matters.

In the 2020/21 campaign Vlahovic scored 11 goals from open play in Serie A, with an xG accumulation of 11.63 (understat), meaning he near enough matched his expected goals level. In the 2021/22 campaign, Vlahovic has netted ten goals from open play already, this time with an xG accumulation of 5.47, meaning he is outscoring his expected goals by a full 4.53.

The put it one way, he’s scored 4.53 more goals than he should have. Across this season and last season, he’s also netted 11 penalties.

This rate of scoring is rarely sustainable, and that’s before factoring in the transition from Serie A to Premier League. Looking across the division’s history, one could argue that the most successful side to have plucked players from Italy is, in fact, Arsenal.

Vieira, Henry and Bergkamp spring to mind, although only the latter played any meaningful minute there for it to even count.

It has been a while, however, for any club, since a player has made the move from Italy and been a roaring success. The speed of the Premier League differs greatly from other top leagues and while Vlahovic certainly has the physical capabilities to impose himself in England, conjecturally the differences from playing in an average Fiorentina side who opposition sides fear less compared to an Arsenal team gunning for top four raises some concerns.

Who was the last striker from Italy to come to the Premier League and hit the ground running for any extended period of time? And which one of them arrived with such a hefty price tag on their shoulders? Using xG alone rings a few alarm bells, and using recent history to find similar examples of fruitful crossovers in divisions rings a couple of gongs on top.

Verdict: Noting is certain with this, it’s worth adding. This is the game of devil’s advocate.

However, the agents fees, lacking willingness from the player and unsustainable metrics see a few red flags lifted. None of this detracts from the players’ ability, and he is a powerful beast of a striker with immense ball striking capability who only turns 22 years old in January. That’s scary.

Something about this move just feels off.