What Arsenal need to finish top four this season

It’s going to go right down to the wire. Arsenal, from the very depths of hell, have dragged their way back onto neutral ground to find themselves locked in a hunt for the Premier League top four.

Victory over Aston Villa was followed by Tottenham seeing off West Ham, which leaves the table in an engrossing position for what is just ten more rounds of league football remaining.

The upper hand does belong to Mikel Arteta’s side, though, as they boast three and four point advantages over Tottenham and Manchester United respectively, and have played one fewer game than their close rivals.

West Ham and Wolves, while previously in the hunt, have tailed off. It looks fairly certain now that this is a three horse race.

What Arsenal need to finish top four this season: Points total, number of wins, Tottenham, Manchester United

To determine who will reign supreme, finding the elusive points total required would help. Unfortunately, that’s near enough impossible since it never stays the same. Here is what it has taken to finish fourth in the past four seasons:

• 2017/18 – 75 points
• 2018/19 – 71 points
• 2019/20 – 66 points
• 2020/21 – 67 points

So let’s set a number. Arsenal, Spurs and United are all in the early 50’s, so setting a hypothetical and relatively realistic target of 74 sounds about right. Why that number? Because that is the figure Arsenal will reach if they win six, draw two, and lose two of their matches. Again, it’s all on paper and not in practice, but based on current form and the games left to play, that seems like a reasonable target.

Starting with Manchester United, if Ralf Rangnick’s side are to finish above that tally they must secure from their final nine games:

• 8 wins
• 1 draw
• 0 losses
• Final points tally – 75

That’s quite the ask. So what about Tottenham? If Antonio Conte is to bring Champions League football to his new side in his first few months at the club it will require this from their final nine games:

• 8 wins
• 0 draws
• 1 loss
• Final points tally – 75

As for Arsenal, they can drop their points against anyone they want. Those two defeats can come against United and Tottenham and it wouldn’t impact the outcome, since that is the ‘luxury’ of having games in hand. Put that way, it seems rather straightforward, doesn’t it? Mikel Arteta’s men can lose and draw two apiece, and still be on course for top four unless their two rivals go on outstanding runs of form.

But again, this is all on paper. What tally of points will be needed isn’t known, and it’s hard to overlook the worryingly improving form of Conte’s side and their, quite frankly, p*ss easy run of Premier League fixtures remaining.

Meanwhile, Arsenal still have to go to Chelsea, Tottenham and West Ham away, while hosting Manchester United. There are other very tricky fixtures in there too.

This race is still very much alive for all teams.

But, if there is one point to take away from all of this, it’s that taking it one game at a time is without doubt the best way to success, and the preferred method to keep one’s sanity in tact.