Supercomputer predicts Arsenal’s chances of winning Premier League after City defeat

Arsenal’s big night ended in disaster as they were swept aside by an irresistible Manchester City at the Etihad. 

Mikel Arteta called for “perfection” from his players in the build-up to the contest, but his team were thoroughly outclassed – as was the manager on the sidelines – in Wednesday’s 4-1 defeat.

The duel between the Premier League’s current top two was dubbed a potential title decider given how late the contest was arriving in the season. Arsenal boasted a five-point lead over City heading into the game, although the back-to-back champions had played two games fewer.

The title was in the Citizens’ hands, but a victory for the Gunners at the Etihad would swing the pendulum back in their favour following three consecutive draws.

Supercomputer predicts Arsenal’s chances of winning Premier League after City defeat

The task always looked imposing for Arteta’s side given their recent woes in William Saliba’s absence. The Frenchman was missing again on Wednesday night, but it’s hard to imagine that it was his injury alone that was responsible for their dismantling at the hands of Pep Guardiola’s side. 

Guardiola changed tack and got the better of his counterpart, with Kevin De Bruyne the distinct beneficiary of Arsenal’s structural deficiencies. The Belgian once again ran riot against Arsenal, scoring twice and assisting John Stones’ header. The 4-1 defeat left Gooners deflated after all the build-up, and their chances of winning their first Premier League title in 20 years now look slim.

FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Premier League season. Following Wednesday’s defeat, the supercomputer now gives Arsenal a mere 10% chance of winning the title.

They’re projecting the Gunners to end the season with 84 points – nine from their remaining five games – and City to finish top with 89 points. Arsenal have tricky fixtures against Newcastle, Brighton, and Nottingham Forest down the final stretch, and many expect a few more dropped points to follow.

Nevertheless, the supercomputer does suggest the Gunners still have a slim chance. It ain’t over until it’s over, as they say. Onto Chelsea.