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Arsenal have not signed Bruno Guimarães simply to add another midfielder to an already stacked squad. They have signed someone who is going to give them extra ways to ensure they defend better, attack with more impetus and improve the squad balance, whilst, most importantly, bringing even more success to Arsenal this season.
According to Analytics FC's Alex Stewart: “He's in the 96th percentile for passes before progression… He's in the 94th percentile for line-breaking passes… He's in the 96th percentile for the quality of the second balls he wins… He's like a slightly more mobile Xhaka.”
It is a fascinating comparison. It is an incredibly exciting one too. Arsenal have been crying out for a Granit Xhaka replacement since his departure. In Bruno Guimarães the data points to an elite progressive passer, an aggressive ball-winner and a midfielder who can consistently help his team regain possession in dangerous areas.
But the most intriguing part of Guimarães' arrival may be what his profile allows Arsenal to do differently. The Gunners no longer have to be as reliant on individual brilliance from the likes of Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard for attacking creativity, while a partnership with Declan Rice could produce arguably the most complete midfield of the Mikel Arteta era. With their contrasting strengths complementing each other almost perfectly, Guimarães could give Arsenal another way to control games, break teams down and score even more goals.
Below, Alex Stewart goes into a deep analysis of exactly what Bruno Guimarães brings to Arsenal.
The astonishing numbers
What was exciting for Arsenal fans is that in the interview Alex Stewart talked with passion about, as he described, a “really, really good all round midfielder”. We started the analysis by looking at Guimarães' data profile and how naturally his strengths appear to fit what Arsenal already want to do.
Alex opened the discussions stating: “The thing that he does really well is he moves the ball forwards into dangerous positions, and then backs that up with a relatively aggressive kind of rest defense high press approach, which means that not only is the ball being pushed forward well and into areas where the team can then go and do damage. He's also looking to get up there and win the ball back. He's very, very good at winning tackles and winning second balls… The ability to then keep it there with that level of aggression and that kind of hunting it down, I think, is really really effective”
This means that Alex can see how the player fits into the side tactically. That he has the attributes that fits into the Arsenal style without needing too much coaching.
But most importantly is that the tactical fit is also backed up by astonishing data from the midfielder.
Data Visualization Courtesy of Analytics FC
From the data provided by Alex, Bruno Guimarães has an overall score of 95 for a midfielder profile. Alex carefully created the profile looking at the data sets that were relevant to “role and function” and the numbers put the new midfielder in the 96th percentile for passes before progression, 94th for line-breaking passes, 87th for high regains and 96th for second-ball quality. The profile also has him in the 99th percentile for tackles, 92nd for progressive short passing and 84th for progressive long passing. This is an extraordinary combination for a midfielder and this means that he will be able to influence both sides of the game. Bruno Guimarães is so incredibly exciting as an addition to Arsenal because he will be able to impact the team both in attack and defence at an elite level.
One of the most impactful bits of data that Alex Stewart explained is Guimarães’ second-ball metric. It is not simply a count of how often Guimarães wins loose balls, but how useful the possession becomes after he wins it. This is important to the way Arsenals as the team are required by Mikel Arteta to be aggressive on press and turn defence into attack to quickly break down teams. Often opponents sit deep to counter Arsenal’s ball dominance and so this particular skill set of Bruno Guimarães will help the transitional side of the teams game so they are even stronger in attack.
Bruno gives Arsenal another way to hurt teams
There is one other addition to the squad that needs examining that Alex Stewart explains so well. We laugh about the banter of Arsenal being “Set Piece FC”, which is an overplayed and inaccurate narrative, but even so the addition of Bruno Guimarães does make Arsenal less predictable in attack. More potent.
Stylistically, Stewart explains, Guimarães is very different from Declan Rice. Alex says look at the Line Breaking Passes.
He explains that “Eddie Howe definitely was more direct than Arteta tends to be, and will have asked his midfielders to look for through balls towards quicker forwards running in”. This is something that Arsenal fans can look forward to from the midfielder.
The difference with Declan Rice is that “Rice, he's almost looking forward for his opportunity to burst forward. It's like who can I play it to? Who can then return it to me as I'm steaming forwards. Not a criticism of Declan Rice. I love him… he’s one of my he's one of my favorite players in the Premier League? Zero question. But I think Guimarães is going to offer a little more penetration with his longer passing and his passing in behind, and I and I think that's you know that's what you want”.
This could be beneficial to the overall attack of Arsenal which, despite having the second best Non-Penalty Expected Goals and second best overall goals, did look slow and ponderous at times. There were passing cycles that would go on for large stretches of time but ultimately came to nothing. Instead, “he will complement certainly Rice's athleticism” and add an outlet for quicker balls through to attackers that Arsenal haven’t had in their midfield for a while. In tandem
It adds unpredictability. It means that the Gunners have even more ways to hurt teams. Possession based high volume sequences, set pieces and now elite through balls that can carve open defences. Alex Stewart summarizes the conundrum this makes for opponents stating “If you're if you're a defending team, you don't want to look up and think, "Oh, okay, so he can hurt us in those two ways. He can hear us in those two ways. He can hurt us in those two ways. Like what's going to happen? That's the worst possible outcome for a defending team”.
Conclusion
Guimarães seems to fit into what Mikel Arteta already wants to do while adding something different. His ability to progress the ball through passing, find runners in behind and then win the ball back high up the pitch gives Arsenal another route to hurt opponents.
Alongside Declan Rice, the duo have the potential to be the perfect Arteta midfield. They compliment each other and iron out each other's weaknesses. Rice's athleticism and ability to drive forward fits into place like a jigsaw puzzle piece aligning with Guimarães' passing range and penetration. It gives Arsenal a midfield capable of progressing the ball in different ways rather than relying on the same patterns every time and that could drive them to even more success this season.
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