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Following this weekend's results, the Premier League title race is very much set to go to the wire, but could it still not be decided on the final day of the season? On Saturday lunchtime, Arsenal put in a disastrous display as they were beaten 2-1 by Bournemouth at home. The following day, Gooners were made to feel even worse as Manchester City swatted aside Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge.
The top two will now meet at the Etihad next Sunday, with the destiny of both currently in their own hands. Should Pep Guardiola's side beat Mikel Arteta's team and win their game in hand against Crystal Palace, their pair would be level on points, but what if it were to finish that way?
Premier League list of tiebreakers
1. Points.
2. Goal difference.
3. Goals scored.
4. Head-to-head.
5. Head-to-head away goals.
6. A play-off at a neutral venue - only used to determine champions, European qualification or relegation.
Well, should the pair finish level on points, goal difference, goals scored and head-to-head record, a never seen before in England one-off play-off at a neutral venue would be required.
This has only ever occurred in a major European league once before. Bologna and Internazionale ended up level on points back in 1964, with the Rossoblù beating the Nerazzurri 2-0 in Rome to collect the most recent of their seven Scudetti. Similarly, very recently, in fact, also in Serie A, Hellas Verona and Spezia faced off in a relegation tiebreaker just three years ago, with the Gialloblù prevailing 3-1 in Reggio Emilia, with Spezia yet to return to the top division.
Well, Arsenal could have been involved in a play-off of their own to determine Champions League qualification in 2013. As documented on the club's official website, had the Gunners and Chelsea finished level in third and fourth, a play-off would have been held at Villa Park on Sunday 26 May, with tickets costing £20 or £30, with the winners going into the group stage and the losers into the play-off round. This though, obviously, did not come to pass.
So, this does feel unlikely to occur in the Premier League, but what set of results would be required?
Arsenal and Manchester City possible results to force a title decider
- 19 April: Manchester City 1-1 Arsenal.
- 22/25 April: Burnley 0-2 Manchester City & Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle United.
- 2/4 May: Arsenal 3-0 Fulham & Everton 0-1 Manchester City.
- 9/10 May: Manchester City 3-0 Brentford & West Ham United 1-0 Arsenal.
- 17 May: Arsenal 5-0 Burnley & Bournemouth 0-2 Manchester City.
- Date TBC: Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace.
- 24 May: Crystal Palace 1-3 Arsenal & Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa.
In this scenario, both clubs would end up with points tally of 83, a goal difference of +48 having scored 77. Worth mentioning that Sunday's clash at the Etihad would have to finish exactly 1-1, in a repeat of September's reverse fixture, as a victory for either would cement their superior head-to-head. A goalless draw would also give Man City the edge on head-to-head away goals scored, while a high-scoring stalemate would do the same for Arsenal.
Let's assume it is 6pm (BST) on Sunday 24 May and all of these results of equivalent have come to pass. Man City have just beaten Aston Villa at home and Arsenal have defeated Crystal Palace at Selhurst, with players at both grounds inquisitively wondering how the others got on. They discover that the top two cannot be separated and a play-off is needed, when and were would this take place?
Well, should Arsenal overcome Sporting and then probably Atlético Madrid, they will be heading to Budapest for the Champions League Final the following weekend, which complicates things. With the World Cup on the horizon, Wednesday 27 May would be the only available date, three days before a potential showdown with PSG or Bayern Munich at the Puskás Aréna.
In terms of venue, Wembley would seemingly be unavailable, having hosted a trio of EFL play-off finals on Bank Holiday weekend, followed by the Rugby League Challenge Cup Final and then Women's FA Cup Final.
This could be good news for Guardiola, who doesn't enjoy visits to London, making the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, venue for August's Community Shield, the most-likely ground perhaps. Given how poorly Arsenal played in May's Carabao Cup Final, and how nervy supporters and players alike look in this run-in, this decider is surely an outcome they'd rather avoid.