Arsenal must not take Nottingham Forest’s 15th-place standing at face value

They say the Premier League table doesn't lie, but it often does, particularly after just six matches. Football is an inherently random sport, where the scoreline often doesn't reflect the balance of play.

For Nottingham Forest this season, that is the case. The East Midlanders are adapting to a new manager in Oliver Glasner and have produced some impressive performances despite only accumulating five points. The Austrian head coach has them playing solid mid-block and counter-attacking football, just like he had Crystal Palace playing for two-and-a-half years.

Their next opponents are an Arsenal side bouyed by securing their eighth win from their ninth fixture this season on Tuesday night. The Gunners ran out comfortable 3-0 winners over Lille, and will head to the City Ground full of confidence.

Nottingham Forest have been much better than their league position suggests

Forest are yet to win or score a goal at home this season. They've lost by a single goal to Leeds and Coventry at the City Ground, while they held Tottenham to a 0-0 draw in the East Midlands.

Their only victory came away at Villa Park, with a draw at Anfield and a defeat at Palace condemning Glasner's side to their current 15th-place standing. On paper, Arsenal should be extremely confident in their ability to return from Nottingham on Sunday evening with three points in the bag.

However, the underlying metrics tell a different story. Forest currently sit fourth in the non-penalty expected goals difference table, behind only the Gunners, Manchester City and Brighton (via FotMob).

Glasner has successfully implemented his style of play, using Morgan Gibbs-White as the Adam Wharton equivalent (the aggressive midfield passer), Daniel Munoz as Daniel Munoz and Liam Delap as the Jean-Philippe Mateta equivalent (the surprisingly technical target man striker). This football has worked well quickly, but hasn't yet yielded the results it's deserved.

The problem Forest have had is that all their games have been extremely close, and largely quite stodgy. Against Leeds, Liverpool, Spurs and Coventry, very little happened in the games as they deliberately played low-event, conservative football. Away to Villa and Palace, they flipped the switch and produced chaotic games with several goal-scoring chances.

Against Arsenal, they'll probably take the cagey approach, and this might suit them.

Arsenal will take Forest lightly at their peril.

Arsenal's recent record at the City Ground is dismal

Forest's promising underlying numbers aren't the only thing that should make Arsenal nervous about Sunday's encounter. The Gunners have a dismal recent record in this fixture.

Before Forest's return to the Premier League, Arsenal lost two FA Cup ties at the City Ground. In 2018, Arsene Wenger's men were defeated 4-2 in Nottingham, before Mikel Arteta's side were beaten 1-0 in the same competition and the same round in 2022.

Since Forest's promotion, Arsenal have won just once in four matches at the City Ground, failing to score in three of these matches. The last two trips to this stadium for Arteta's men have ended 0-0. Clearly, there's something about this tight, historic stadium that gets to the Gunners' players.

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