Arsenal vs Burnley: Why this title-race clash may not be as tough as it looks

With the Champions League Final in Budapest under a fortnight away, I was asked recently if I believe Arsenal can beat Paris Saint-Germain. "PSG?", I replied, "I'm worried about Burnley first!" After the Gunners' terrifying 1-0 win over West Ham last time out, Chris Kavanagh's "after review" earning its place in club folklore, the Gunners are two wins away from being Premier League champions.

One could hardly ask for two, on paper, easier fixtures than Burnley (H) and then Crystal Palace (A), with the context that the latter is three days before the Eagles tie with Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League Final in Leipzig. Nevertheless, not a single Gooner in the planet is taking anything for granted; never before have Burnley looked so daunting. One Gooners is forecasting "it will be grind", while another is convinced that Burnley are going to transform into "out-of-nowhere prime Barça".

Here though are three reasons why Arsenal will collect three priceless points at the Emirates on Monday night.

Arsenal's home record vs Burnley (1975-present)

• Matches Played: 12.

• Arsenal Wins: 10. Draws: 1. Burnley Wins: 1.

• Arsenal Goals Scored: 27. Burnley Goals Scored: 7.

Note: All statistics courtesy of 11v11.com.

Across the last half a century, Arsenal have won ten of 12 home games against Burnley, dating back to a 1-0 victory for the Clarets at Highbury in 1974. Their only away win over Arsenal subsequently came in front of only 2,000 people in December 2020, darkest lockdown for Gooners but also the entire world as a whole, a game decided by a late Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang own goal.

Burnley though have not scored more than once against Arsenal in North London since a 3-2 defeat 57 years ago. Their last meeting in N5 saw Mikel Arteta's team prevail 3-1 in November 2023, thanks to goals from Leandro Trossard, William Saliba and Oleksandr Zinchenko. On top of this, the Gunners' visit to Turf Moor earlier in this campaign could hardly have been more one-sided.

Burnley 0-2 Arsenal statistics: 1 November 2025

Note: All statistics courtesy of SofaScore.

The reverse fixture in Lancarshire in November was one of the most one-sided anywhere in Europe this season. Arsenal raced into a 2-0 first half lead at Turf Moor, making the remaining hour a non-event. Marcus Edwards thwacked the post with a free-kick, which proved to be literally the last kick of the afternoon, and this was the closest Scott Parker's team came.

On Monday night, having been mathematically relegated weeks ago, Michael Jackson will be in caretaker charge. Arsenal fans will be hoping to avoid a thriller, simply looking to beat it, not wanting to remember the time their team was bad and Burnley were dangerous, etc and so on.

Well, Burnley arrive in the capital with one of the worst away records in the Premier League.

Burnley's Premier League away statistics 2025/26

Note: Statistics courtesy of FBref, Statmuse & Understat.

When it comes to pretty much every metric this season, Burnley are rock-bottom when it comes to away matches. The Clarets have enjoyed victories at Molineux and Selhurst Park, both 3-2, but have lost 13 of 18 away games to date. They also sit dead like for goals conceded, expected points, shots and clean sheets on the road, while only Everton average less possession.

So, all things being equal, Monday night should see Arsenal cruise to victory, with Arteta's team very much searching for an early goal to settle any nerves, both on the pitch and in the stands.

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