Bukayo Saka is about to explode again at Arsenal and here's why

There's a growing collective concern over Bukayo Saka amongst Arsenal fans, and it's fair to say that there is at least some validity to these fears.

On the eye, he doesn't look quite as bursty as he once did. It feels like he has to work a lot harder to beat his man than he used to, and it's been a while since he bent a shot into the top corner.

He's supposed to be Arsenal's franchise player. The man who carries a somewhat underwhelming attack, while the imperious defence keeps the floor of the team incredibly high.

He certainly hasn't quite managed to do this since he returned from his major hamstring injury in the 2024/25 season, and this has sparked reasonable doubts about his ability to return to this level, particularly after producing a handful of wasteful performances at the start of this season.

However, looking beyond the surface, there are actually good reasons to be optimistic about an explosive Saka renaissance in the coming months.

Bukayo Saka's underlying goal threat numbers have been elite this season

A lot of the frustration around Saka so far this season has been about his inefficient finishing.

Against Napoli, he spurned a guilt-edged opportunity, skying the ball when one-on-one with Alex Meret. Against Sunderland, he was presented with a glorious chance when Declan Rice clipped the ball over the top to him, and he tamely sidefooted it at Robin Roefs. Against Brighton, he missed a similar chance when Martin Odegaard found him on the counter-attack.

However, adopting a more positive outlook on this situation actually elicits excitement about what these missed chances might mean for Saka's season. He's currently putting up elite goal-threat numbers, better than anything he's produced previously in his career.

According to FotMob, Saka is currently getting 3.23 shots per 90 minutes (86th percentile), 0.52 non-penalty expected goals per 90 (92nd percentile), and scoring 0.65 goals per 90 (91st percentile). These are outstanding numbers, and if they continue, they are bound to yield an extraordinary goal output for the season, even if he keeps underperforming his xG a little.

When diving into the chances Saka is getting, there is no reason to believe this threat won't continue. He's not just spamming long-range efforts from stupid locations; he's making intelligent runs to find himself in dangerous areas inside the box, clearly shown with his goal against Aston Villa.

If Saka has proven anything throughout his career, it's that he's an extremely intelligent player who understands how to position himself to make dangerous plays. His ability to get into threatening positions has seemingly gone up a level, and this is an incredible encouraging sign when looking to forecast his output for the campaign.

A new normal for Bukayo Saka

Until he tore his hamstring, Saka was an all-encompassing wide man who offered ball progression through his carrying, creativity in the final third, dribbling and goal threat. He did all of this alongside being one of the hardest-working wingers in world football, contrubuting to Arsenal's elite defensive structure out of possession.

He was always slightly more of a playmaker than a goal-scorer, but he did both to a very high level. What we might be seeing now is a transformation in his primary skillset as he adapts to his new body mechanics, following a series of injury setbacks.

There's no doubt that his burst has gone a little, and that has probably negatively impacted his all-round game, while particularly hitting his creative assets. However, he now looks focused on scoring goals more than he ever has, and the early numbers suggest he might just have the ability to do this at an elite rate.

Fans might need to adjust how they judge Saka. There needs to be an understanding that this could be his new normal, and that he might not be able to do some of the things he used to, but can perhaps do the most valuable thing in the game to a very high level.

If he keeps putting up the numbers he currently is in the final third, Saka is primed to explode as a goalscorer.

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