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There is always a degree of uncertainty when a player arrives in the Premier League from a less familiar league. With Christos Tzolis there is mystery, but also excitement, as he arrives at Arsenal with some incredible performances last season. He has started his life in London well, but a few games are not enough to make a firm decision over his quality. So we must examine whether his elite numbers in Belgium are easily translated to Arsenal and the demands of English football.
Speaking to Jason McKenna at Pain in the Arsenal, Alex Stewart of Analytics FC explained why Tzolis' physical and tactical profile makes him a particularly interesting candidate to make the jump to the Premier League, where his game could immediately improve Arsenal's attacking depth, and why there is a “Trossard shaped hole” that the Greek winger could fill, albeit in a very different way.
The Data Holds Up
Alex Stewart's approach to Tzolis' profile is interesting. Rather than simply taking the winger's raw Belgian numbers and comparing them directly with Premier League players, he has adjusted Tzolis' output to estimate how his profile would translate against English to flightl competition:
“What I've done is I've scaled it up to compare it to Premier League forwards. So I'm looking at his outputs in Belgium, but adjusted as if they were against compared to Premier League players in his position.”
The results are really exciting. Even after that adjustment, Tzolis still remains comfortably in the top 20% for almost everything. Alex Stewart's profile looks at his key passes, touches in the box, carrying, half-space carries and line-breaking carries, with the winger only dropping to around the top 25% for actions around Zone 14.
Infographic Visualization Courtesy Of Analytics FC
But there is more to the analysis that Alex gives. He explains that not only do his numbers scale up to be a potential success in the Premier League, but also he is well suited for Arsenal’s style. The data analyst delves into why Tzolis is a great fit for the Gunners stating that
“The profile is particularly strong in the areas Arsenal will want from a winger. Tzolis ranks highly for key passes and touches in the box, showing his ability to create and arrive in dangerous areas, while his carrying and half-space carrying numbers point towards a player capable of progressing the ball himself. His line-breaking carries are also among the strongest areas of the profile”
But it is also worth bearing in mind that Alex himself says the purpose is to make the comparison fairer, not to claim that Tzolis will automatically reproduce his Belgian output.
The Premier League will still bring a significant increase in tactical and physical quality that Tzolis will have to adapt to. There will inevitably be a period of adaptation.
However, on top of the data Christos Tzolis has a few other areas of his profile that could help him succeed in the Premier League.
Strength In The Premier League
One area of concern with any player arriving from another league is whether their game can withstand the considerable jump in intensity that comes with Premier League football. The English top flight is like no other and so the player needs to have skill mixed with physicality or they will not succeed. Alex Stewart points out that Belgium is physically less intense, although that is hardly unique when almost every league represents a step down from the demands of the English top flight
However, once again, the analysis leads us to believe that Tzolis' individual physical profile means he can compete in the league and will be able to replicate the outstanding performances he had with Club Brugge.
Alex explains that:
“Players who are pretty physically powerful and quick, like Tzolis, are probably more likely to be fine than players who are, shall we say, more cultured, for want of a better word, and maybe rely on that and their technical ability a little bit more… Tzolis is a great technical player, but a lot of his game is still predicated on being a relatively big lad who can, you know, run past people, so I think in that respect you're probably less worried”
This means that although the Premier League defenders and midfielders Tzolis will be competing with will be quicker, stronger and more aggressive Tzolis’ own physicality means he will be able to compete. He will not have to reinvent his style of play, nor is he likely to be bullied off the ball.
That does not guarantee instant Premier League success, and Stewart is clear that “there's still going to be a period of adaptation”. But it paints the picture of a player who physically, at least, has the potential to be strong in the league. Arsenal appear to have recruited a winger whose existing strengths give him a much better foundation from which to make that jump up to Premier League football.
Tzolis Adds to the Arsenal of Set-Piece FC
There is another part of Tzolis' creative profile that will bring an unbelievable level of excitement to Arsenal fans. Leaning into the club's banter identity of “Set Piece FC” Tzolis’ data stood out during my conversation with Stewart that he is very good at set pieces.
Arsenal already possess some of the Premier League's most dangerous dead-ball options, so there is no guarantee that Tzolis immediately walks into the side and takes responsibility. Yet his record in Belgium suggests Arsenal have added another player capable of providing genuinely dangerous delivery.
Stewart explained that a remarkable proportion of Tzolis' creativity last season originated from dead-ball situations:
“In Belgium, he just created a huge amount of chances directly from set pieces. Can't remember the exact number, but it's around 40% of his chance creation was from set pieces”
That figure needs some context. Tzolis will encounter better defenders in England and Alex Stewart was careful not to suggest that set-piece production simply transfers unchanged between competitions. But there is one particular skill that he believes does travel particularly well between leagues: the quality of the delivery itself.
“What is, I would say, transferable, portable, is the ability to strike the ball from a set piece, so his delivery will scale up, will scale across.”
This is where the move to Arsenal could actually work in Tzolis' favour. Rather than simply asking whether he can reproduce what he did in Belgium against Premier League opposition, it is worth considering that the quality around him has also increased substantially. Stewart even suggested that this could make Tzolis more dangerous, because he will now be supplying players who are better equipped to attack those deliveries.
For Arsenal, therefore, the value might not necessarily be that Tzolis becomes the set-piece taker. Instead it offers variety that opponents will not know how to work around. Arteta now has another high-level option. As Stewart put it, having Rice, Tzolis or Saka standing over a dead ball creates uncertainty for the opposition: “I don't know who's going to take it. I don't know which way it's going to go”. That variation, he argues, is “a really useful thing to have.”
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