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With there being an extended International Break it gives an excellent opportunity for us as fans to assess whether Arsenal are improving. So with a few games behind us, has the club actually made a better start than last campaign?
This analysis compares Arsenal’s start with the corresponding period last season of the first 5 Premier League games, examining attacking output, defensive performance and the contribution of individuals. It also places those numbers in the context of the Premier League as an improvement on their own figures does not necessarily mean we have gained ground on our rivals. It is important to improve against others rather than just standing still.
So let us look at the all important data that shows us if Arsenal are building on the title winning season.
Same Old Issues In Attack
One of the standout figures for concern is that the same old issue of recent seasons seems to be recurring once again. That is because on goals alone, Arsenal have made a less convincing start. 8 goals scored compared with 10 at the start of last season sees a regression, and during the matches we have once again been left frustrated by the finishing of Kai Havertz. The lack of summer activity in the forward department may haunt another season. We can see this poor performance in terms of finishing as represented by Arsenal underperforming their Expected Goals (xG).
However, it is not all doom and gloom. The underlying numbers offer a more encouraging picture. Arsenal’s expected goals have increased from 7.39 to 8.48, a rise of 14.7%, despite the fall in actual goals. Last season, Arsenal scored 2.61 goals more than our xG; this time, the team are 0.48 below it. The decline in scoring has therefore come alongside an increase in the expected value of the chances we generate. This means that if Arsenal start matching their xG they will start producing more interesting outcomes in matches.
For now Arsenal fans can be more positive when looking at the attacking data this season as there is an argument that the goals will follow without needing to change much, the side have just been unlucky not to put chances away.
A defensive trade-off?
Although Arsenal’s defence remains the strongest in the league by expected goals conceded, there are signs of regression beneath that ranking. Opponents have generated 4.04 xG compared with 3.28xG last season, but the most worrying is the huge increase in Big Chances conceded from 2 to 7. The club is still setting the standard at the top of the league, but have been less secure against our own elite benchmark.
Some may point to the fact that Arsenal have conceded fewer attempts inside the box, down from 28 to a league-best 26, and kept another three clean sheets. However, the concern is that, despite restricting the overall number of attempts from close range, we have allowed more of the particularly dangerous opportunities.
But Mikel Arteta may be introducing another incarnation of Arsenal. He is building upon the league winning season and now is pushing on so that the teams style is not predictable. Also, without the psychological baggage of winning the league hanging over the team the side now has more freedom to be experimental.
This is reflected in the attacking figures. Chances created have increased from 43 to 56, a rise of 30.2%, while shots on target have climbed from 17 to 23. Non-penalty xG has also improved from 6.61 to 7.69, suggesting the increase in attacking threat extends beyond penalties and is from Open Play.
There is a revealing change in where the attempts are coming from. Subtracting set-play attempts from total shots leaves 48 this season compared with 40 last season, an increase of 20%. This is an improvement on one of the criticisms from last season: many fans were worried on over reliance on set pieces and penalties for goals but the numbers show that the creativity from Open Play has improved.
It has also been something that fans have seen in the “eye test” where Arsenal have looked much more exciting and closer to the excitement of the 2023/24 season. Supporters have long wanted to replicate that side that came so close to winning the title because of the incredibly attractive football the team played and also, statistically, they were the most attacking team of Arteta’s reign with the highest xG per 90.
There is also a final point to be made in regards to the defensive data: the absence of William Saliba. His injury has undoubtedly contributed to some of this problematic data, but the positive is that unlike in previous seasons the team has stood relatively resolute and has got through this tough period thus far without much of a regression. Saliba’s absence is being felt but the deeper squad with Christian Mosquera, Ezri Konsa and Ben White has meant that there has been no defensive collapse.
Overall it seems that the strong defensive foundation, and title winning psychology, may have now given Arteta room to experiment with tactical balance. So far, the additional xG created has narrowly outweighed the additional xG conceded, lifting our expected goal difference from +4.11 to +4.44. If this is a conscious adjustment towards greater attacking freedom, the challenge is to preserve those gains while limiting the dangerous opportunities conceded.
Captain Fantastic Ødegaard
One of the highlights of the season so far is Martin Ødegaard returning back to his best. In recent seasons his brilliance has been overshadowed by constant injuries. Since the start of the 2024/25 season he has lost 199 days to injury and missed 45 matches for club and country. Now he is back leading the line and also showcasing his incredible creativity. .
So far we have seen him return to being the creative focal point of the team with him having laid on 12 chances for teammates compared with just one in last season’s opening 5 matches, while his Big Chances created have increased from 0 to 3. His expected assists have risen from 0.36xA to 1.31xA, which is the highest total among Arsenal players this season.
Those improvements are not solely a product of spending more time on the pitch. His minutes per chance created have fallen from 166 to 31, meaning he is creating opportunities more than five times as frequently compared to last campaign. His expected assists per 90 have also increased from approximately 0.20xA to 0.31xA.
His own scoring threat has increased too. Ødegaard has taken 7 shots compared with 4, with attempts inside the box rising from 1 to 4. His xG has climbed from 0.14 to 1.07, suggesting he is finding more threatening shooting opportunities.
A reason behind these numbers is that the squad around Ødegaard allows him to focus more on attack. In previous seasons, due to other player injuries and lack of squad depth, he has had to drop deep many times and helped the team in defending. Whilst he has shown he is one of the best in the league at this role the signing of players to fill in the deeper midfield roles means he can now focus on moving the ball forward. He has now undertaken a more influential, attack-minded.
Conclusion
After five games, there is evidence that Arsenal have improved, but only marginally overall. Chance creation has increased, Ødegaard is exerting greater attacking influence, and the expected goal difference remains the strongest in the league. Those are encouraging foundations.
The concerns are equally clear. Arsenal have scored fewer goals, conceded more and allowed opponents more big chances. An improvement of 0.33 in expected goal difference is too small to declare this a substantially stronger team, particularly before accounting for differences in opposition.
What makes this start interesting is the possibility that Arsenal are adjusting their balance. The attacking gains suggest there may be more to come, but greater freedom will be most valuable if it can coexist with the defensive security that has become this side’s strength.
For now, the numbers support cautious optimism. The numbers are there, the next step is to turn that into a clearer advantage on the scoreboard without giving opponents more opportunities of their own.
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