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We've had enough time in the season to analyse Arsenal as a club. The men's team is heading into the international break, and we've now seen the women's team compete both domestically and in Europe.
Both Arsenal Men and Arsenal Women are noticing similar problems. They are both creating enough chances to score, but the end product has been lacking for both teams. It's all well and good to make the claim, but the data makes that reality even grimmer.
Arsenal Men and Arsenal Women have a clear xG problem this season
Arsenal Men have produced a total xG of 13.5 across seven games so far this season; however, they've scored just 13 goals. Not bad, but their xG suggests they should be scoring more.
Arsenal Women feel the problem even more. They have produced a total xG of 7.77 across four games, but they have scored just three goals. The disproportion between expected goals and goals scored shows they have vastly under-scored this season.
Arsenal Men xG | Arsenal Men Goals | Arsenal Women xG | Arsenal Women Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
13.5 | 13 | 7.77 | 3 |
Arsenal Women are frustrating right now, but they have a solid foundation
Context matters, and it's often lost among the fanbase that this Arsenal team is in the early stages of a new era. They made wholesale changes in the summer transfer window, and a large spine of the team is still gelling together.
Renee Slegers is still figuring out her best team, which is a nice problem to have. She has experimented with different players, for example, Olivia Smith and Lisa Baum, in positions that could be considered secondary to their strengths, and even managed to rotate the team heavily in the Champions League.
The creativity is clearly not the issue. They know how to foster opportunities, but they need to be more clinical. They have vastly under-scored, and it's a frustration supporters feel, but one that can only be solved once the floodgates open. Admittedly, it needs to happen sooner rather than later.
Arsenal Men learned the hard way that xG doesn't win games
Heading into the international break, Arsenal Men gave fans the most diabolical performance they have seen in many years. Brighton didn't just beat them; they served Mikel Arteta a slice of humble pie, and forced him to rethink things going into the break.
Brighton won the game 3-0, but Arsenal had more xG (1.63) than Brighton (1.31). Not once in the game, though, did it feel like Arsenal were going to win the game.
After the break, which is tediously long, Arsenal face Leeds at the Emirates Stadium. It feels like forever since Arsenal played at home, so let's just hope Leeds don't spoil the party.
Arsenal Men didn't make wholesale changes in the transfer window, but they didn't need to invest as heavily. Regardless, many would argue that they didn't recruit in key positions of need - those being left wing and a new striker.
The problem for Arteta is not production; it's sealing the deal. His team has been much more productive away from set pieces this season, but on a few occasions (namely, that Napoli display), they have not finished their dinner.
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